Every airspace violation costs Russia a few thousand dollars in fuel.
Every NATO response costs millions in scrambled fighters and emergency meetings — and infinitely more in damaged credibility when the allies look weak and indecisive.
Moscow keeps offering the same choice: Act or fold.
And every time the West hesitates, the bluff gets harder to call.
Russian jets didn’t bomb Tallinn ; the drones over Poland carried no payload.
The incursions over Denmark and near Alaska are shrouded in the fog of plausible deniability — serious enough to scramble fighters but ambiguous enough to dodge consequences.
And that’s exactly the point. Moscow is waging a different kind of war on the West. Not like the one it brought to Ukraine.
The point of poking NATO is to provoke nothing.