Mikie Sherrill is not prone to hyperbole. The Democratic nominee for governor of New Jersey is measured and mainstream—even “milquetoast,” in the words of one progressive activist. But when I asked Sherrill what message a victory for her this November would send nationally, she made a rather bold declaration.

“As New Jersey goes, so goes the nation,” she told me. This is a stretch. But maybe not by all that much.

New Jersey is no one’s idea of a swing state; it hasn’t voted Republican for president in nearly four decades, and it last elected a GOP senator during the Nixon administration. But the Garden State has been moving rightward these past few years—Donald Trump came within six points of winning its electoral votes last year—and the governor’s office has historically toggled between

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