Updated at 9 a.m. on Monday, Oct. 6, 2025.

A broad circulation is developing in the large disturbance tracking across the tropical Atlantic. The thunderstorms are still disorganized, however, so it has a ways to go before it gets designated a tropical depression or tropical storm. The National Hurricane Center has odds in the high range that the system will organize.

Dust and dry air cover much of the tropical Atlantic, which appears to be the limiting factor. And even if the system becomes a depression or Tropical Storm Jerry, the dry air looks likely to tamp its ability to strengthen quickly.

Some computer forecasts show the system eventually developing into a hurricane, but the consensus is that it will not become terribly strong before it reaches the vicinity of the northeast Caribb

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