One of eight independent politicians who hold the future of a divisive AFL stadium in their hands has firmly indicated he won't vote for the project.

The Tasmanian government will on Wednesday deliver its response to a planning commission report that recommended the $1.13 billion Macquarie Point waterfront stadium not go ahead.

It said the stadium, a condition of Tasmania entering the AFL and AFLW in 2028, was too big for the site and its cost outweighed the benefits.

Tasmania's Liberal government has remained steadfast in championing the stadium, which will need to pass a vote of parliament in November to become reality.

With the state's Labor opposition locking in its support, the stadium will get through the lower house.

But it faces a trickier passage in the upper house and needs

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