The World Trade Organisation sharply lowered its 2026 forecast for global merchandise trade volume growth to 0.5% on Tuesday, citing expected delayed impacts from U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

It marks a significant revision down from its previous estimate in August of 1.8% growth.

“The outlook for next year is bleaker … I am very concerned,” Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala told reporters in Geneva.

Resilient Trading System

However, she said the world trading system is showing resilience, with the rules-based multilateral system providing some stability amid trade turmoil.

For 2025, the WTO upgraded its forecast for global trade volume growth to 2.4%, from 0.9% previously, driven primarily by the front-loading of imports into the United States ahead of tariff hikes a

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