Bitcoin is holding around $122,000 in Wednesday’s Asian hours after setting a record high at $126,200 earlier this week, with some market watchers still expecting a surge to a record $140,000 later this month.

Economist Timothy Peterson said in an X post Tuesday that bitcoin has a 50% probability of rising to $140,000, citing simulations that were based on data from the past decade.

“There is a 50% chance Bitcoin finishes the month above $140k,” Peterson said in an X post on Wednesday. “But there is a 43% chance Bitcoin finishes below $136k.”

BTC is up nearly 10% since the start of October, which has historically been one of the most bullish periods for all financial assets. The move has been driven by record ETF inflows and exodus of coins from centralized exchanges.

Exchange balances

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