**Alberta Oil Production Surpasses 2010 Levels, Growth Slows** Alberta's oil production has reached 4.2 million barrels per day from January to August this year, marking an increase of 200,000 barrels compared to the same period last year. This figure is more than double the production levels seen in 2010. However, analysts predict that growth may slow significantly in the coming years due to pipeline capacity constraints and regulatory challenges. Jeremy McCrea, an energy analyst at the Bank of Montreal, noted that while Alberta has the potential to double its production, reaching a target of 8.4 million barrels per day by 2040 is unlikely without new pipeline infrastructure. "So the big question, in terms of just getting this production to exist: is there going to be egress to get it to market?" McCrea said. As producers begin utilizing the recently completed Trans Mountain Expansion, the industry is expected to face export bottlenecks as it approaches capacity. Richard Masson, an executive fellow at the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy, emphasized that the primary issue hindering production is the lack of pipeline access to new markets. "The market is there. I think we can produce it. The problem has been we can’t get it to market reliably," Masson stated. Federal regulations, including a proposed emissions cap on the oil and gas sector, have faced criticism from Alberta's energy industry. Some economists, like Andrew Leach from the University of Alberta, argue that these regulations may not be the most significant barriers to new pipeline construction. In recent years, investors have become increasingly hesitant to finance new oil and gas projects, particularly those requiring substantial upfront investments and lengthy construction periods. Globally, oil companies are spending less than they did during the last major boom in the early 2010s, when numerous pipeline projects were proposed. Currently, North American oil prices have remained below $65 per barrel for much of the past two months. Despite this, Alberta's oil production is expected to continue its upward trend. The Alberta Energy Regulator forecasts a potential increase of up to 300,000 barrels per day by 2029. Masson explained that the industry is gradually enhancing production efficiency in existing operations rather than initiating new projects. "Producers don’t have strategic direction from their boards or their investors to invest big money in the oilsands, even though they know they can do it," he said. A proposed pipeline to the British Columbia coast could be a significant development, potentially allowing for the transport of up to one million barrels per day to tidewater. However, McCrea cautioned that such a project would take at least four to five years to complete. "It’s low oil prices now, but by the time you can actually flow (through) this... it’s difficult to forecast oil prices a month from now, let alone what’s going to happen in four to five years," he added.