Key Notes

Arthur Hayes claims that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is obsolete, replaced by liquidity-driven trends.

Global monetary expansion, not halvings, now drives BTC’s bull markets.

US rate cuts, Treasury injections, and Chinese easing create a favorable environment.

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes believes that Bitcoin’s traditional four-year market cycle, long tied to halving events, is no longer relevant in today’s macro-driven world.

In a detailed blog post, Hayes explained that while the pattern once helped traders forecast bull and bear phases, it has become obsolete. Instead, Bitcoin price movements are now dictated by global liquidity conditions, especially monetary policy in the United States and China .

Hayes argued that previous market peaks didn’t occur because a cy

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