The SEC finally cleared the road to fast-track altcoin ETFs, but a government shutdown may keep applications for a Cardano (ADA) ETF stuck in limbo until 2026 – and bettors on Polymarket are undervaluing that.

After scrapping 19b-4 filings and approving “generic listing standards” to fast-track altcoin ETFs, traders are betting 90% odds that ADA’s ETF approval would arrive by year-end 2025.

But with a 36% chance of a month-long government shutdown, that 10% “No” side may prove the smarter play as even “absurdly fast” approvals can’t happen when the lights are out.

According to the SEC’s contingency plan, only about 390 of its 4,200 employees remain on duty, focused entirely on emergencies and market monitoring rather than new product approvals.

ETF issuers can still submit filings thro

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