State-run oil marketing companies (OMCs) are likely to report a sequential decline in earnings for the July-September quarter of 2025-26 (Q2FY26), as rising crude prices and stable retail fuel prices put pressure on marketing margins. However, analysts expect an uptick in earnings compared with the same period last year.

Crude oil prices rose around 4% in rupee terms during the quarter, while retail fuel prices remained flat. Despite this, some cushion is expected from lower inventory losses and an assumed ₹30,000 crore government compensation for subsidised LPG sales.

Kotak Institutional Equities forecasts a sequential decline in earnings for state-controlled refiners, with profits at Bharat Petroleum Corp. Ltd. (BPCL) falling 34%, Hindustan Petroleum Corp. Ltd. (HPCL) 46%, and Indi

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