Title: Alberta Adds 42,500 Jobs in September Amid Falling Oil Prices

Alberta's job market showed significant growth in September, with the province adding 42,500 new jobs. This increase accounted for over 70% of the total employment gains across Canada for the month, according to the latest labor force survey from Statistics Canada.

Despite oil prices dropping below $59 a barrel, the job creation marks a notable achievement for Alberta. BMO chief economist Douglas Porter described it as the largest monthly increase in jobs on record for the province, excluding the disruptions caused by the pandemic in 2020. "To put it in perspective, a 1.7% increase for some provinces, that’s a good year, not a good month," Porter said. He emphasized that Alberta is "literally in a league of its own" regarding job growth.

The province experienced a 1.7% rise in employment from August to September. This comes after a challenging summer, during which Alberta lost 17,000 jobs in July and another 14,000 in August. However, over the past year, employment in Alberta has increased by 3.8%, the highest growth rate in Canada. Saskatchewan follows with a 2.3% increase, while the rest of the country saw just over a 1% rise.

While the job growth is promising, Alberta's unemployment rate remains a concern. It dropped by 0.6 percentage points to 7.8% between August and September, but this rate is still the highest among western Canadian provinces. In Calgary, the unemployment rate is 8.1%, and in Edmonton, it stands at 8.7%.

The job gains were primarily seen in manufacturing, construction, and professional services, with nearly 8,000 new manufacturing jobs, 8,400 in construction, and 6,500 in professional, scientific, and technical services. Jake Lenarduzzi, a senior economist with the Conference Board of Canada, noted, "We saw this kind of job growth in some industries in Alberta that’ve been a bit in trouble elsewhere in the country. It’s a good sign for the Alberta economy."

Alberta's housing market has also shown strength this year, and the province benefits from a lower U.S. tariff rate compared to other regions, largely due to its energy exports. Most oil and gas exports comply with the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement, avoiding American tariffs.

Alberta Jobs and Economy Minister Joseph Schow remarked, "The unemployment rate has gone down and it’s a positive trend. We talk about youth unemployment; it is now in line with national rates. But the broader picture here is there are jobs in Alberta, and it’s a great place to invest."

Looking ahead, uncertainty remains regarding business investment, particularly due to ongoing trade tensions with the United States. BMO projects Alberta will lead the country in economic growth this year at 2.1%, compared to a national average of 1.2%. The Conference Board of Canada anticipates Alberta's GDP will grow by about 2% next year and 2.6% in 2027, despite a slowing population growth.

Oil prices continue to be a significant factor in Alberta's economy. On Friday, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell $2.61 to close at $58.90, the lowest level since early May. Concerns over increased OPEC+ supplies and higher inventory levels are contributing to this decline. Lenarduzzi stated, "Over the next year or so, there’s going to be a significant amount of downward pressure."

As producers face pressure to improve efficiency and reduce spending, Imperial Oil announced plans to cut about 900 jobs in Canada by the end of 2027, primarily at its Calgary headquarters. The U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts WTI prices will average $58 a barrel in the fourth quarter, dropping to $48.50 next year.

In Alberta, oil production has been increasing, and the price discount on Western Canadian Select heavy crude has remained low since the Trans Mountain expansion began. However, with OPEC+ planning to raise output, analysts warn that lower prices are an "inevitable consequence" of excess global supply. Rory Johnston, founder of the Commodity Context newsletter, raised concerns about the future of investment in the Canadian oil sector, stating, "At what point do we begin to see the Canadian oilpatch pull back on investment commitments?"

The coming months will be crucial for Alberta's economy as it navigates these challenges and opportunities.