Buffalo Bills at Atlanta Falcons best prop bets for Monday Night Football

Buffalo Bills running back James Cook (4) rushes the ball against the New England Patriots during the first half at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York.

The Buffalo Bills (4-1) and the Atlanta Falcons (2-2) meet on Monday Night Football at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia. Kickoff is at 7:15 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's Bills vs. Falcons odds and tab the 5 best prop bets to win among SportsbookWire's expert NFL picks and predictions for Week 6.

The Bills suffered their first loss of the season in Week 5, falling 23-20 to the division rival New England Patriots. Buffalo failed to cover as a 4-point home favorite as the Under (48.5) cashed. TE Dalton Kincaid provided a spark, recording the first 100-yard receiving game of his career (108). RB James Cook was limited to just 49 rushing yards, snapping his 3-game streak of topping the century mark. Three costly turnovers, including an interception from QB Josh Allen, proved to be the difference.

The Atlanta Falcons entered Week 6 refreshed after their bye week and riding the momentum of a Week 4 victory over the Washington Commanders. Atlanta won 34-27, covering as a 2.5-point home favorite as the Over (43.5) hit. QB Michael Penix Jr. finished with a career high 313 passing yards, with 2 TDs and an INT. RB Bijan Robinson continued his dynamic play, totaling 181 yards and a TD, while WR Drake London recorded his first 100-yard receiving game of the season (110).

The Falcons lead the all-time series 7-6, but the Bills won 29-14 at home in the last meeting in 2022.

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Bills at Falcons prop bets

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:20 a.m. ET.

Bills RB James Cook OVER 16.5 RUSH ATTEMPTS (+100)

The Bills are likely to rely heavily on their ground game against a Falcons defense that dominates through the air, allowing just 135 passing yards per game — the best mark in the NFL. That sets up perfectly for Cook, who’s averaging 18 carries and 90 rushing yards per game. He’s already gone over this number in 3 of 5 contests, and with Buffalo expected to control the pace, I’m betting Cook goes OVER 16.5 (+100) rush attempts against Atlanta. Expect a steady dose of Cook early and often in this matchup.

BILLS AT FALCONS: Odds, picks and predictions

Falcons RB Bijan Robinson OVER 75.5 RUSHING YARDS (-115)

The Falcons boast one of the league’s top rushing attacks, powered by Robinson’s consistency and explosiveness. Over his last 3 games, he’s rushed for 143, 72, and 75 yards — all near or above this week’s mark. Atlanta averages 136.5 rushing yards per game, while Buffalo’s defense has struggled against the run, surrendering 145.6 per contest (fifth worst in the NFL). They have allowed 98.8 yards per game to the running back spot. With Penix Jr. still adjusting to the pro game, expect Robinson to be the focal point once again. I’m betting he goes Over his rushing total with ease Monday.

Bills QB Josh Allen OVER 33.5 RUSHING YARDS (-115)

Bills QB Josh Allen ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN (-115)

I spoke about the Falcons’ pass defense being a challenge to attack. Allen's rushing ability could become a bigger part of the game plan Monday night especially inside the red zone. Atlanta has a solid pass rush which could force Allen into rushing situations, who has been sacked 10 times in 4 games. He has cleared this rushing prop in 3 of his 5 games this season. The Falcons are allowing 109 yards per game on the ground and specifically 22.8 to the QB position. Allen has 68 career rushing TDs (3 this season already), which is why he’s a "go-to guy" inside the 5-yard line.

Bills WR Josh Palmer OVER 22.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

Palmer hasn’t quite clicked with Allen the way many expected when he joined Buffalo, but Monday’s matchup could be a turning point. Atlanta’s secondary, anchored by CB A.J. Terrell should focus primarily on WR Keon Coleman, leaving Palmer with favorable single-coverage looks. Despite the Falcons’ strong pass defense, this is a very manageable number for him to clear. Palmer has gone over this mark in 4 of the Bills’ 5 games so far and should see plenty of opportunities again this week.

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This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: Buffalo Bills at Atlanta Falcons best prop bets for Monday Night Football

Reporting by Drew Phelps, Sportsbook Wire / Sportsbook Wire

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