Several authors, including us, have argued that a growth rate of 6.5% appears to be the potential growth rate of India as of now. But the first quarter growth rate of 2025-26 is estimated at 7.8%. Does this alter our perception about the potential growth rate?

The first quarter real GDP growth in the post-COVID-19 years, from 2022-23 to 2024-25, has averaged 9.9% as compared to corresponding average levels of the second, third and fourth quarters of 7.0%, 6.9% and 7.5%. Thus, a 7.8% real GDP growth in the first quarter of 2025-26 is below the average for the first quarter of the previous three years. The annual real GDP growth rates for 2022-23 to 2024-25 were at 7.6%, 9.2% and 6.5%, respectively.

On the output side, real GVA growth in the first quarter of 2025-26 was 7.6%. This was also

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