Noting robust growth in the April–June quarter, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday raised India’s growth forecast for FY 2025–26 by 20 basis points to 6.6 per cent. However, citing the impact of increased tariffs, it lowered the projection for FY 2026–27 by 20 basis points to 6.2 per cent.

“Compared with the July WEO Update, this is an upward revision for 2025, with carryover from a strong first quarter more than offsetting the increase in the US effective tariff rate on imports from India since July, and a downward revision for 2026. Compared with the pre-tariff forecast in October 2024, growth is projected to be cumulatively 0.2 percentage point lower,” the IMF said in its World Economic Outlook, released ahead of the Fund-Bank annual meetings.

The IMF’s current estimate

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