WASHINGTON – There are many questions about how to get out of the seemingly intractable government shutdown. But there's no clear answer.

Lawmakers on Capitol Hill sound like broken records. President Donald Trump has been preoccupied negotiating a ceasefire in the Middle East. And he has used the shutdown as an opportunity to move money to programs and people he likes while targeting for furloughs, layoffs and elimination what he calls "Democrat" functions of the federal government that he runs.

As the standoff stretches into its third week, no plausible off-ramps have emerged (yet). The Senate has struck down the same budget bills more than half a dozen times. Another vote on a Republican funding measure failed on Oct. 14.

At some point, a number of variables in the shutdown equation could start to change those dynamics, possibly creating a path for enough lawmaker votes to reopen the government. Federal workforce layoffs may worsen, as the White House has threatened. Bipartisan back-channeling among senators could turn up a compromise on the biggest sticking points.

Or top Democrats could change their minds about the political wisdom of allowing a shutdown. So could rank-and-file Democrats. And then there's Trump, who has been known to throw curveballs into lawmaker negotiations and whose behavior can sometimes be tough to predict.

Time also works differently during a shutdown: The longer it lasts, the more pain people feel. And in the words of House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-New York, just before the government's lights turned off: "In Washington, five days or so is an eternity."

Here are seven key things to watch for signs of whether the shutdown ends soon, or, as House Speaker Mike Johnson has warned, becomes "one of the longest in American history."

Obamacare negotiations

The main sticking point in the funding fight is a party-line disagreement over how to address the expiration of health insurance subsidies at the end of the year.

The subsidies, which come in the form of tax credits, are connected to the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare. If Congress does nothing, millions of people will see their premiums rise on Jan. 1.

Rank-and-file senators have begun bipartisan back-channeling over what an Obamacare deal could look like in exchange for Democrats' votes to reopen the government. It's not clear how those talks have progressed.

House Republicans have even introduced a bill to extend the subsidies for a year, though Democrats say that's not long enough. The disagreement among GOP lawmakers to do something to intervene was underscored by Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Georgia, who notably broke with her party's leadership after the shutdown started. The longtime Trump ally said that though she isn't a "fan" of Obamacare, her own adult children's health care premiums will double next year when the enhanced tax credits expire.

"Not a single Republican in leadership talked to us about this or has given us a plan to help Americans deal with their health insurance premiums DOUBLING!!!" Greene wrote on X.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer

One of the most important figures to watch in the shutdown standoff is Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. If Republicans want a handful of Senate Democrats to overcome the 60-vote threshold and reopen the government, they most likely need Schumer to do it.

In March, the 74-year-old New Yorker brought together a small group of fellow Democrats to vote with him to pass a GOP funding bill, averting the first threat of a shutdown in Trump 2.0. That decision prompted widespread frustration among progressives, especially in the House of Representatives, and even more moderate wings of the party.

This time around, Schumer is playing hardball. So far, he has held firm against GOP pressure and mostly held his caucus in line with him.

Republicans, including the president, say Schumer's fighting spirit is the result of speculation that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-New York, could run against him in a primary and push him to retire. (The 36-year-old congresswoman has not made public any Senate ambitions, and the five-term Schumer has not said he is considering retirement.)

Schumer insists his hard-line shutdown stance isn't driven by political calculations. Instead, he has characterized it as a necessary effort to push the GOP to do what's best for the American people, and for the quality of their health care in particular. "Republicans are feeling the heat," he said on MSNBC over the weekend.

Moderate and retiring Senate Democrats

Though Schumer has largely kept his caucus together during the shutdown, there are some wild cards who have less of a reason to do what he says.

A handful of Senate Democrats – including Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire, Gary Peters of Michigan and Tina Smith of Minnesota – are retiring. So is Illinois' Dick Durbin, but he and Schumer are longtime friends and probably wouldn't break so publicly.

"We all need to be working together," Shaheen, a key figure in nascent bipartisan health care talks, said on Fox News a week ago.

Others aren't leaving, but similar to the retirees, they tend to be more moderate. Senators such as New Hampshire's Maggie Hassan voted for the GOP funding bill in March. Now they largely say curbing the harm that will be imposed by lapsing Obamacare subsidies is important enough to risk the consequences of the shutdown.

"We need to reopen the government, and we also need to address this looming health care crisis," Hassan said in a video she posted online last week.

Lawmakers like Jon Ossoff, meanwhile, have campaigns to think about. He's up for reelection next year in Georgia, a swing state that Trump won in the presidential election last year. Thus far, he has toed the party line.

The Trump factor

In March, the last time the country flirted with a shutdown, Democrats were not on the same page. This time, Republicans are the ones struggling to stay unified.

Trump has on occasion taken different positions from those of congressional leaders, namely House Speaker Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune. He insisted that members of the military must be paid during the shutdown and even rerouted money to do so, while his counterparts on Capitol Hill said they wouldn't pass a standalone military pay bill. At least in passing, Trump has signaled more of an openness to negotiating a health care agreement with Democrats than Johnson or Thune.

Republicans in Congress almost always follow Trump's lead. But the cracks emphasize that he's unpredictable. It's always possible the two-term Republican president could decide to pressure other GOP lawmakers to compromise and end the shutdown.

Despite the chaos at home, the president has been focusing a lot of energy since the shutdown began on international conflicts. He traveled to the Middle East this week to help broker the first phase of a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas. After returning to Washington, he hosted the president of Argentina and on Oct. 17 is scheduled to meet at the White House with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

The last time Trump sat down with lawmakers in both parties came just before the shutdown. The Oval Office gathering was called in hopes of negotiating a funding deal as the start of a new fiscal year approached on Oct. 1. Afterward, the president posted offensive memes online of the Democrats he had met with. No agreemeent was reached.

Federal layoffs

On the heels of deep cuts to the federal workforce earlier this year, the White House laid off thousands more employees over the weekend.

The firings, initially tallied at more than 4,000, cast a wide and unforgiving net across many federal agencies, including nearly everyone in the Education Department's special education division. According to a court filing from the Justice Department, 1,100 to 1,200 employees were also cut from the Department of Health and Human Services (the agency's union says hundreds of HHS layoffs have since been reversed). Nearly 1,500 workers at the Treasury Department were let go, too.

The Office of Management and Budget, which executed the layoffs, isn't letting up.

"OMB is making every preparation to batten down the hatches and ride out the Democrats’ intransigence," the office wrote on social media. "Pay the troops, pay law enforcement, continue the (layoffs), and wait."

Talking to reporters Oct. 14, the president doubled down on that sentiment.

"We're being able to do things that we were unable to do before," Trump said. "We're closing up programs that are Democrat programs that we wanted to close up."

Top Democrats don't seem daunted by the firings for now, calling them illegal and suggesting they'll ultimately be rescinded. They have cast Russell Vought, the Trump-appointed head of OMB, as a villainous figure who was intent on destroying the federal workforce regardless of whether a shutdown occurred during his tenure.

"Every authoritarian leader has had his Grim Reaper," Rep. Steny Hoyer, D-Maryland, said at a news conference. "Russell Vought is Donald Trump's Grim Reaper."

Democrats' resolve could change as time goes on and Americans start to feel the effects of reduced government programs.

Military paychecks

As a deadline for military troop pay approached Oct. 15, the president announced he would divert other Pentagon funds to ensure service members got their checks.

There are legal questions, though, about whether a presient has the authority to do that. Asked on CBS's "Face the Nation" whether Trump could make that unilateral move, Rep. Jim Himes, D-Connecticut, said, "Probably not."

"The White House’s understanding of United States law" is "pretty tentative to say the best," he said.

Though Johnson hasn't committed to bringing a stand-alone military pay bill up for a vote, he praised the president for finding a workaround and dared Democrats to challenge it.

"If the Democrats want to go to court and challenge troops being paid, bring it," he told reporters Oct. 14.

Overall pain of the shutdown

As the shutdown drags on, Americans are feeling consequences more each day. Flights are being delayed, trash is piling up at landmarks, and a range of government services people rely on have been disrupted by furloughs. Even in red states, governors are tapping into state funds to try to maintain their national parks.

Trump is betting that Americans will blame Democrats for the tumult in the end. Some airports began playing videos last week of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem warning travelers of disruptions because "Democrats in Congress refuse to fund the federal government."

As more funding deadlines approach, the strain on Americans will likely become less bearable. Asked Oct. 14 whether the shutdown could stretch into November, Trump wouldn't answer directly. But he stressed this isn't the first one.

Zachary Schermele is a congressional reporter for USA TODAY. You can reach him by email at zschermele@usatoday.com. Follow him on X at @ZachSchermele and Bluesky at @zachschermele.bsky.social.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: 7 things to watch for signs of the government shutdown ending

Reporting by Zachary Schermele, USA TODAY / USA TODAY

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