Title: Chrétien's Cabinet Meeting Before 1995 Quebec Referendum

MONTREAL - Six days before the pivotal 1995 Quebec referendum, Prime Minister Jean Chrétien urged his cabinet to remain calm. He acknowledged the possibility that Quebecers might vote for separation from Canada on October 30. During a closed-door meeting on October 24, Chrétien advised his ministers that it was not the time to discuss the implications of a potential independence vote. He emphasized, "no one should panic or act precipitously."

The cabinet minutes, recently disclosed under federal access to information laws, reveal a shift in tone as the referendum approached. Initially confident, Chrétien's demeanor changed as the campaign faced a national unity crisis. The documents provide insight into the behind-the-scenes dynamics during a critical moment in Canadian history.

In the meeting, Chrétien announced he would take a more active role in the campaign, which had previously been led by Quebec Liberal leader Daniel Johnson. He warned his ministers against becoming "overly distraught" as the federalist campaign's polling lead diminished. Charismatic separatist leader Lucien Bouchard had begun to rally support for Quebec's independence, causing concern among federal ministers.

Several ministers expressed frustration at being sidelined in a debate that could significantly impact the future of Canada. They stressed the importance of Chrétien's involvement and urged him to "speak from the heart." The prime minister committed to delivering a televised address to the nation the following day.

The cabinet meeting minutes contrast sharply with earlier discussions, where Chrétien had questioned whether a vote on independence would even occur. Ultimately, the federalists won the referendum by a narrow margin of 50.58 percent, a victory that was hard-fought. The day after the vote, Chrétien reminded his ministers to maintain a positive public demeanor and to frame the outcome as a victory for Canada.

"Had he not stepped in ... I think we would have lost the country," said Sheila Copps, who served as deputy prime minister at the time. The referendum campaign officially began on October 2, 1995, although preparations had been underway for months. Quebec Premier Jacques Parizeau had promised a referendum within a year of his election in 1994, launching public consultations to garner support for independence.

Initially, Chrétien instructed his cabinet to remain calm and avoid overreactions, believing the referendum was still far off. He noted that the "No" campaign would be led by Johnson, not himself, as he was not particularly popular in Quebec. However, as the campaign progressed, the separatist movement gained momentum, and internal conflicts among its leaders over the referendum question began to resolve.

In March 1995, Chrétien expressed skepticism about the likelihood of a referendum, suggesting that the sovereigntists were hesitant to proceed. By the summer, however, the political landscape shifted. Parizeau agreed to a pact with Bouchard and Mario Dumont, promising that the referendum question would include an offer for a new political and economic association with Canada. Chrétien viewed this as a tactic to confuse voters about the stakes involved.

Polling data presented to the cabinet indicated that while a majority of Quebecers still intended to vote against independence, the prospect of a partnership with Canada was narrowing the gap. The key message for the federalist campaign was that the promise of an association with Canada was misleading.

As the campaign unfolded, confusion about the referendum question grew. By October 3, polling showed that 22 percent of respondents believed Quebec would remain a province of Canada if the "Yes" side won. Despite maintaining a lead, Chrétien cautioned his ministers against overconfidence.

The situation changed dramatically when Parizeau appointed Bouchard as the chief negotiator for partnership talks following a potential separation vote. Bouchard, who had recently recovered from a severe health scare, became a symbol of hope for the separatist cause. In a matter of days, the "Yes" campaign surged ahead in the polls.

The effectiveness of Chrétien's late intervention remains a topic of debate. Some on the "Yes" side believed they could have won if the campaign had lasted longer. However, Chrétien's efforts were credited with injecting emotion into the "No" campaign, which had previously lacked a patriotic appeal. "There was no appeal to patriotism. ... There was no appeal to why you would want to be a Canadian," said Eddie Goldenberg, a senior policy adviser to Chrétien. "But you know, at the end of the day, we won."