Boise State Broncos quarterback Maddux Madsen (4) celebrates as he runs in a touchdown against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish during the first half at Notre Dame Stadium in South Bend, Indiana.

The UNLV Rebels (6-0, 2-0 Mountain West) and Boise State Broncos (4-2, 2-0) meet Saturday at Albertsons Stadium in Boise, Idaho. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET (FS1). Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's NCAA football odds around the UNLV vs. Boise State odds and make our expert college football picks and predictions for the best bets.

The Broncos lead the all-time series 11-3, including the past 2 Mountain West Championship games. Boise State won 21-7 in the MWC title game in Boise Dec. 6, 2024, covering as a 4-point favorite with the Under (57.5) cashing. It also won 29-24 in the regular-season meeting in Las Vegas Oct. 25, 2024, covering as a 4-point favorite with the Under (63.5) hitting. The Broncos are 4-0 ATS in the past 4 meetings, while the Under is 3-1 in that span.

UNLV has lost 9 straight meetings against Boise State, with its last win in the series coming Nov. 6, 1976, in Las Vegas.

The Broncos won 41-25 against New Mexico last Saturday, covering as a 15-point favorite with the Over (58.5) cashing. QB Maddux Madsen threw for 226 yards, 2 TDs and 0 INTs, while RB Sire Gaines ran for 65 yards and 2 TDs. WR Ben Ford hauled in 6 receptions for 78 yards and 2 TDs. Boise State is 4-0-1 against the spread (ATS) in the past 5 games, while the Over is 4-1 in that span. Boise State has scored 41 or more points in 4 of the past 5 games, too.

UNLV outdueled Air Force 51-48 last Saturday as a 7-point favorite, snapping a 4-game cover streak. QB Anthony Colandrea threw for 361 yards and 1 TD, while running 7 times for 62 yards and a pair of scores. RB Jai'Den Thomas ran for 88 yards and a score, while WR Daejon Reynolds had 4 catches for 139 yards and a TD.

– Rankings: US LBM Coaches Poll, conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports

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UNLV at Boise State odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:20 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): UNLV +375 (bet $100 to win $375) | Boise State -500 (bet $500 to win $100)
  • Against the spread: UNLV +12.5 (-110) | Boise State -12.5 (-110)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 60.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

UNLV at Boise State picks and predictions

Prediction

Boise State 38, UNLV 35

Moneyline

Boise State (-500) will cost you 5 times your potential return, and that’s too much risk for too little reward. Even if you were to include the Broncos in a parlay, there isn’t much value, and there is quite a bit of risk with Boise State in this tough game against the unbeaten Rebels.

PASS and look to the spread instead.

Against the spread

UNLV +12.5 (-110) is catching double digits, and that’s quite a few points for an unbeaten team. UNLV is likely to feel disrespected. The fact is, the Rebels haven’t won against the Broncos since 1976, and Boise State has been the biggest obstacle in recent seasons, making the difference between good and great.

Boise State is 4-0-1 ATS in the past five games, but UNLV is also 4-1 ATS in the same span. This Rebels team can roll up plenty of points, but the question is, who has UNLV really played? The schedule has been relatively easy to date, so this is a huge step up in competition.

Over/Under

OVER 60.5 (-110) is a strong play in this Mountain West clash.

As we get later in the season, snow, ice and frigid temperatures can be a concern in Boise, but temperatures are expected to be in the mid-50s with no chance of precipitation, abundant sunshine and little wind to speak of. The conditions will be perfect for a potential shootout.

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: UNLV Rebels at Boise State Broncos odds, picks and predictions

Reporting by Daniel Dobish, Sportsbook Wire / Sportsbook Wire

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