Updated Saturday 10 a.m. ET

The Tropical Disturbance we've been watching is on track to move across the southeastern Caribbean islands – the Windward Islands – tomorrow into Monday. Gusty squalls with heavy rain are likely in some areas. Then next week, things get fuzzy.

About Thursday, the system will be in the central Caribbean under atmospheric conditions reasonably conducive to organization and strengthening. The question is, how strong can it get and how quickly?

A sharp dip in the jet stream will move offshore of the U.S. East Coast late next week. If the system is reasonably strong at that time, the jet stream dip could scoop it up and pull it over Puerto Rico or the nearby islands. But if it stays on the weaker side or forms farther south in the Caribbean, the jet stream dip wil

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