(NEW YORK) — The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released its winter season outlook, indicating that various regions in the United States will experience different weather patterns this winter. The forecast suggests that the Upper Midwest and Pacific Northwest may see cooler and snowier conditions, while much of the southern and eastern U.S. could experience milder temperatures than usual.

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center published the seasonal outlook on Friday, detailing expected temperature and precipitation trends from December through February. The report does not predict specific weather events over short periods but rather provides an average outlook for the season. For instance, while December might have typical winter weather, January and February could be warmer, potentially raising the overall seasonal average to above normal. Conversely, extended cold spells could lower the average to below normal.

The outlook also addresses snowfall expectations. Although it does not provide specific snowfall predictions, it indicates that above-average precipitation is likely for the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, Great Plains, and Great Lakes. If conditions are cold enough, this precipitation could manifest as snow. In contrast, the southern half of the country, including Southern California, much of Texas, the southeastern U.S., and the coastal Mid-Atlantic, may experience drier conditions than average this winter.

Historically, winters in the contiguous United States have been warming. According to NOAA and the Environmental Protection Agency, average winter temperatures have increased by about 3 degrees Fahrenheit since the early 1900s. The winter of 2023-24 was noted as the warmest on record in 130 years, with over half of U.S. states reporting their top-10 warmest winters. Recent winters have also seen significant weather anomalies, including record snowfall in the South in late January 2025 and a prolonged snow drought in the Northeast that lasted over 700 days, ending in 2024. An analysis by Climate Central revealed that nearly two-thirds of over 2,000 locations across the U.S. are experiencing less snowfall than they did in the early 1970s.

The winter outlook is influenced by climate patterns, particularly those in the Pacific Ocean. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a key factor, representing variations in ocean temperatures that affect weather patterns. Currently, the ENSO is in a cooler phase known as La Niña, which has been in effect since September. Forecasters expect this pattern to persist through much of the winter before transitioning to a neutral phase in the spring. This pattern is likely to result in warmer and drier conditions for the southern U.S. while the Pacific Northwest and Great Lakes regions may experience cooler and wetter weather than average throughout the winter season.