China is on track to land its first crew on the lunar surface by 2030 and establish a base at the resource-rich south pole — a site that offers continuous sunlight, access to water ice and control of the most valuable real estate beyond Earth. Beijing’s record of steady, disciplined progress in space suggests they will meet that goal.

NASA’s Artemis program is ambitious and visionary, but its current Human Landing System schedule makes a United States landing before 2030 increasingly unlikely. The agency’s complex architecture along with its two contractors — SpaceX and Blue Origin — are developing cryogenic, reusable landers that depend on unproven technologies such as in-space refueling. These systems will eventually succeed and transform exploration, but their technical and integration

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