Invest 98L could become Tropical Storm Melissa later this week

The National Hurricane Center is closely watching Invest 98L.

This tropical wave is generating a large area of showers and storms as well as winds of up to 40 mph along its north and eastern flanks.

The wave is currently hitting a pocket of wind shear keeping it relatively unorganized. Invest 98L could slow down later this week, that's when tropical development becomes more likely.

The National Hurricane Center says it has a 70% chance of cyclone formation over two days and a 90% chance of development over the next seven days.

Models agree in the short term, but become divergent by days six and seven. There are three possible scenarios at play:

The system moves west into Central America.

The system curls north, possibly bringing impacts to portions of the Caribbean.

A later northe