If asked about the most consequential current foreign trend for India, the replies may range from Gaza to Ukraine and even United States President Donald Trump’s tariff war. But we are also approaching an even more impactful battle: for the global oil market. It is being waged between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)-Plus and the remaining oil exporters, with consumers playing an increasingly decisive part. Depending on who prevails, the gains for India, the world’s third-largest importer, could vary from tangible to substantive.

Crude is the world’s most valued commodity, with over 100 million barrels per day (mbpd) produced, nearly half of which is traded globally. Depending upon the prevailing unit price, the daily global crude trade currently tops $3 billio

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