Major Hurricane In Making? Here Are Pair Of Possible Tracks For Tropical Storm Melissa

By Joe Lombardi From Daily Voice

Tropical Storm Melissa is gearing up in the Caribbean, and forecasters say it could rapidly strengthen into a major hurricane as steering winds set up two possible tracks.

AccuWeather said Melissa’s potential has been upgraded on Wednesday, Oct. 22, due to an “extreme risk to lives and property in the Caribbean,” citing the threat of widespread, life‑threatening flooding, mudslides, and destructive winds. 

The track depends on how far west the storm drifts and how the jet stream sets up next week, a pattern shown in AccuWeather’s latest steering map. 

One scenario for Melissa's track takes it farther out to sea.

AccuWeather

One scenario pulls Melissa out to sea east of the Bahamas. 

A less likely path brings the center closer to the East Coast before turning away. 

A second scenario for Melissa's path puts it much farther to the west.

AccuWeather

“A dip in the jet stream over the Southeast US and strong, upper-level winds are expected next week, which should prevent movement toward the Gulf Coast states,” AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. “The risk of direct rain and wind impacts on the US is low, but it cannot be ruled out. Melissa could bring rough surf, coastal flooding and beach erosion to parts of the US East Coast starting next week.”

The National Hurricane Center warns torrential rain from slow‑moving Melissa could hammer Haiti and the Dominican Republic, as well as all of Jamaica. 

Rainfall of 8 to 16 inches is possible across southern Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, and Jamaica, with as much as 30 inches in spots. 

Flash flooding and mudslides could be catastrophic, especially in steep terrain. The Cayman Islands should monitor the storm for several inches of rain and gusty winds. Parts of Puerto Rico could also face flooding rainfall. 

“Melissa has the potential to create a historic flooding disaster, especially if it slows to a crawl or stalls in the Caribbean. Catastrophic flooding in populated areas could lead to a humanitarian crisis, leaving a large number of people in need of food, safe drinking water, medical care and shelter,” AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter said.

AccuWeather notes the East Coast of the United States and the Bahamas should be alert for increasing onshore winds, rough surf, beach erosion, and areas of coastal flooding next week, regardless of the exact track.

Check back to Daily Voice for updates.