Editor's note: Read the latest on Tropical Storm Melissa's track for Friday, Oct. 24.

Tropical Storm Melissa continues to meander in the central Caribbean Sea on Oct. 23, its future path and strength still confounding meteorologists, who are now raising alarms about how strong the storm could become.

"It goes without saying, this is a very challenging track forecast," the National Hurricane Center said in an Oct. 22 forecast discussion. In addition, "the intensity forecast is also more uncertain than usual, in large part related to the track uncertainty."

And with the chances of a monstrous Category 5 storm still in play, the potential is there for Melissa to be "the most impactful storm of the 2025 season," said Houston-based meteorologist Matt Lanza in a Substack post on Oct. 22.

Indeed, if Melissa does end up turning west over the Caribbean south of Jamaica (like some model forecasts show), "I don't think it's hyperbolic to say we will likely get a Category 5, and quite possibly one of the strongest storms ever recorded in the Atlantic," Andrew Hazelton, an associate scientist at the University of Miami's Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, said on X Oct. 22.

Jamaica in the crosshairs

Forecasters from the hurricane center on Thursday, Oct. 23 said that in the short term, Jamaica will likely see the worst of the storm's fury: "Due to Melissa’s slow motion, the risk of a prolonged multi-day period of potentially damaging winds, heavy rainfall resulting in life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides, and coastal flooding continues to increase for Jamaica."

"Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion, since strong winds and flooding rains could begin in Jamaica by Friday (Oct. 24) or Saturday (Oct. 25)," the hurricane center warned.

Hazelton added on X that he's "becoming increasingly concerned for the possibility of a close pass or direct hit on Jamaica from Melissa. Overnight hurricane models have trended closer and all show impacts on the island."

Worst-case scenario for the Caribbean

"The worst case is that (Melissa) sits close enough to one or several of the mountainous Caribbean islands and dumps feet of rain," Fox Weather hurricane expert Bryan Norcross told the USA TODAY Network via email. "Three or four feet are not out of the question."

The heavy rain could trigger life-threatening flash floods and mudslides in some areas, the hurricane center said. Areas like Hispaniola are especially prone to catastrophic flash floods due to the island’s complex and mountainous terrain, noted WPLG-TV meteorologist Michael Lowry in a Substack post. "Flooding is historically the deadliest calling card of tropical systems in this part of the world, and the threat Melissa brings will be no exception."

Lanza said, "this could be catastrophic in some places, including portions of Jamaica and Haiti or the southern Dominican Republic as well. Just really bad news with a slow-moving Melissa."

In addition, next week there is some possibility of it becoming a very strong hurricane before it makes its move to the north, Norcross said. "In that case, direct impacts of a major hurricane are possible on Cuba, Jamaica, Haiti, and/or somewhere in the Bahamas."

Worst-case scenario for the US

None of the reliable computer models show Melissa having any direct impact on the United States mainland.

But forecasters say there is still a small chance of a U.S. impact: "Chances of some direct effect on Florida aren't zero, but they are extremely small," said Norcross via email Oct. 21.

"The only way it could happen would be for Melissa to drift into the extreme western Caribbean before a dip in the jet stream moving across the U.S. came along to scoop it north," Norcross said. "There is no indication of that in the current reasonable track scenarios, however. Still, a track over Cuba and the Bahamas is not out of the question."

AccuWeather's DaSilva clarified further: "Even if Melissa reaches the western Caribbean, that doesn’t guarantee direct impacts in Florida; many models still show it moving over central Cuba and then out to sea. For now, there’s nothing immediate to worry about, but it’s definitely worth monitoring closely over the coming days."

Map shows Melissa forecast track

This forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.

Could Melissa become a Category 5 storm?

Melissa is going to move slowly over the next five to seven days over some of the warmest, deepest warm water in the Atlantic Basin, Lanza said.

Hurricanes power up when they move over warm, deep ocean water of at least 80 degrees.

"Intensification into a hurricane and major hurricane seems likely at this point, with a high-end category 4 or 5 in the realm of the possible," Lanza said.

The hurricane center's official forecast shows Melissa reaching Category 4 strength, with winds of 130 mph, by the weekend.

"It is becoming increasingly likely that Melissa will become a large and dangerous hurricane," the hurricane center said on the afternoon of Oct. 22.

(This story was updated to add new information and to add a video.)

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Hurricane forecasts say Atlantic may unleash one of its 'strongest storms ever'

Reporting by Doyle Rice, USA TODAY / USA TODAY

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