NFL straight-up picks Week 8: Will Aaron Rodgers have his Packers revenge?

FTW NFL Moneyline picks, Week 8

Oct 19, 2025; Inglewood, California, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Daniel Jones (17) throws the ball in the second half against the Los Angeles Chargers at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

Oct 12, 2025; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (8) attempts to run the ball while Cleveland Browns defensive end Joe Tryon-Shoyinka (90) pursues during the second quarter at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Barry Reeger-Imagn Images

Week 7 started as badly as it could have. Thanks to misplaced faith in the Jacksonville Jaguars and a mistimed dismissal of Joe Flacco, an 0-3 start threatened to tank yet another week of moneyline picks.

Then, things got more predictable. A 12-game winning streak came into focus behind a long list of favorites covering. That gave us a tidy 80 percent hit rate just in time for another slate of games that look easy to divine on paper but will give us plenty of trouble once kickoff comes.

Take the Carolina Panthers, for example. They’re over .500 seven weeks into the season for the first time since 2019. They’re hosting a suddenly spiraling Buffalo Bills team with an iffy secondary. Could they cement their claim as a playoff contender while simultaneously raising the collective blood pressure of western New York's talk radio hosts to a dangerous degree?

Probably not, but we've also get the beginning of a potential Baltimore Ravens revival, an inscrutable battle between the Houston Texans and San Francisco 49ers and an Aaron Rodgers revenge game on the docket. Let's take a closer look and see if we can figure out some winners.

I ended 2023 as Pickwatch’s top expert in a field of hundreds. My 2024 wasn't as fruitful — Andrew Joseph and his 71 percent hit rate knocked me down a peg in the FTW standings.

Joining me for 2025 is a seven-person panel ranging from FTW editors (Charles Curtis, Mary Clarke) to betting analysts (Prince Grimes, Jordan Tomiyama) to NFL writers (Robert Zeglinski, Cory Woodroof, who is on vacation this week, and Joseph). Here are our Week 8 picks.

and:

Since our editing software occasionally struggles to make these picks super clear, here they are in an easier to read (but impossible to cut and paste) jpg:

Let's break out three games to talk about.

Survivor pick of the week: Indianapolis Colts (-14) over the Tennessee Titans

Oh good, a team we haven't picked before is playing Tennessee. If you've already burned the Colts, the Atlanta Falcons have a get-right experience against a Miami Dolphins team that's faded like a $3 t-shirt in the sun.

• Last week: 1-0
• 2025 to date: 7-0 (1.000)

Hardest favorite to back: Baltimore Ravens (-6) over the Chicago Bears

Why I like this pick:

Baltimore has reached its breaking point. A 1-5 start isn't fatal in a messy AFC North, but it's put the franchise's playoff hopes in critical condition. Last week's bye gave Lamar Jackson a little extra recovery time from the hamstring injury that's made Cooper Rush the Ravens' top QB. He's practicing again this week and seems likely to play Sunday.

The Bears are riding a four-game win streak, but their toughest opponent in that stretch was either the defense-optional Dallas Cowboys or a Washington Commanders team that's sputtered through their encore to a surprising 2024. Chicago has forced a ludicrous 15 turnovers in that stretch, which is awesome but unsustainable.

Baltimore ranks 27th in total turnovers this fall, but that's skewed heavily by four Rush interceptions and a fumble from the elevated backup. The Ravens still averaged a turnover per game under Jackson, but a bye week of getting screamed at thanks to a terrible start should at least help clean things up.

Baltimore is at home with its back against the wall. Chicago is on the road and rolling with house money. The former feels more dangerous than the latter.

Why I don't like this pick:

Baltimore was 1-3 with Jackson in the lineup. Now he has to face a surging Bears team that beat a mid-Atlantic squad with a dynamic dual-threat quarterback on the road just two weeks earlier. Stopping Jackson and stopping Jayden Daniels are two different beasts -- and Daniels still had three passing touchdowns and 52 rushing yards -- but a rising Chicago offense came alive to create the leverage for a 25-24 win.

The Bears are averaging nearly 27 points per game in their recent win streak. The Ravens' defense ranks dead last in expected points added (EPA) allowed through seven weeks. This feels like a case of betting on what I expected these teams to be vs. what they actually are. But trusting Chicago is still so hard, even on the back of four straight wins. Remember what happened to last year's 4-2 start?

• Last week: 1-0
• 2025 to date: 3-4 (.429)

Upset pick of the week: n/a

Well, huh. I picked all chalk this week. But Chicago at +6 would be a solid value bet. The Panthers getting 7.5 points at home against a shaky Buffalo team is tempting as well. The Jets at +6.5 against the Bengals? Well, no, let's not go too far.

But if there's one team with the best chance to win as an underdog, I'd side with the Pittsburgh Steelers at home against the Green Bay Packers.

Let's talk about that.

Why I like this pick:

The Packers have been a disaster on the road, losing to the Cleveland Browns, settling for a drawn-out tie against the defense-less Dallas Cowboys and nearly losing to the Jacoby Brissett-led Arizona Cardinals. Now we head to an Aaron Rodgers revenge game at a theoretically re-sodded not-Heinz Field that feels like it will be juuuuuuust grimy enough to knock one Green Bay receiver out of the game before 60 minutes are up.

The Packers sealed recent wins with late-game pressure. That feels like an easy strategy against a 41-year-old Aaron Rodgers, but Pittsburgh has countered that with quick passes and some unexpected (if minimal) rollouts from the quarterback who'd ruptured his Achilles two years ago. Myles Garrett and the Browns couldn't derail him (after thoroughly derailing Jordan Love weeks earlier). The Minnesota Vikings' blitz-heavy defense was kept at bay.

That means Rodgers should find time to make plays against a team he'd very much like to make plays against.

Why I don't like this pick:

The Steelers secondary just got roasted by Joe Flacco and now faces an offense that schemes wideouts open better than nearly anyone in the league. Matthew Golden hasn't ascended to WR1 status in the Green Bay offense, but he's shown flashes of the playmaking the Packers expected when they made him their first first-round wideout in two decades. 49 percent of the Bengals' passing yards came on runs after the catch last week. Now Pittsburgh has to stop an offense that ranks third in yards after catch this fall.

Green Bay has the more complete team. The Steelers have homefield advantage and a quarterback defined by spite. Tough call.

• Last week: 0-1
• 2025 to date: 4-3 (.571)

This article originally appeared on For The Win: NFL straight-up picks Week 8: Will Aaron Rodgers have his Packers revenge?

Reporting by Christian D'Andrea, For The Win / For The Win

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