The National Hurricane Center's forecast cone for Melissa on the morning of Friday, Oct. 24.
The rainfall forecast for Melissa shows heavy rain is likely across Jamaica, probably leading to flash floods and mudslides.

On the afternoon of Friday Oct. 24, Tropical Storm Melissa continues to spin in the central Caribbean Sea, where the island nation of Jamaica lies almost directly in the path of the burgeoning hurricane.

While Hispaniola and Cuba are also in the line of fire, forecasters from the National Hurricane Center on Oct. 23 said that in the short term, Jamaica could see the worst of the storm's fury.

"Due to Melissa’s slow motion, the risk of a prolonged multi-day period of potentially damaging winds, heavy rainfall resulting in life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides, and coastal flooding continues to increase for Jamaica," the hurricane center said.

"Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion, since strong winds and flooding rains could begin in Jamaica by Friday (Oct. 24) or Saturday (Oct. 25)," the hurricane center warned.

Models raise alarm about Jamaica forecast

Andrew Hazelton, an associate scientist at the University of Miami's Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, said on X Oct. 23 that he's "becoming increasingly concerned for the possibility of a close pass or direct hit on Jamaica from Melissa. Overnight hurricane models have trended closer and all show impacts on the island."

Indeed, according to the hurricane center, "a variety of model solutions show Melissa south of Jamaica, over Jamaica, or north of Jamaica."

Heavy rain is expected across Jamaica, where "precipitation totals from multiple models suggest that storm totals exceeding 24 inches and localized amounts above 30 inches are quite possible," noted meteorologists Bob Henson and Jeff Masters in their blog Eye on the Storm.

3 days of hurricane conditions could lead to 'slow-motion disaster'

The storm will strengthen and move slowly over the northern Caribbean for the next few days: “Melissa is forecast to rapidly intensify to a major hurricane while slowly churning over the warm waters of the Caribbean. Because the storm is expected to move so slowly, some parts of Jamaica could experience hurricane conditions for 72 hours or longer," AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva warned.

“Melissa is evolving into a slow-motion disaster. Millions of people are at risk of catastrophic impacts. We are increasingly concerned about the threat of a humanitarian disaster unfolding.”

Melissa could become a Category 5 hurricane

Some forecast models show Melissa powering up to a Category 5 hurricane over the next few days, though the official forecast from the hurricane center has it "only" reaching Category 4 strength of 150 mph.

Melissa is likely going to move slowly over some of the warmest, deepest warm water in the Atlantic Basin, Houston-based meteorologist Matt Lanza said on his Substack The Eyewall.

Hurricanes power up when they move over warm, deep ocean water of at least 80 degrees.

"The exceptionally warm waters, reaching hundreds of feet deep, will act like jet fuel – providing extra energy for Melissa," DaSilva said. "The warmest water in the Atlantic basin is in the central Caribbean, in the direct path of this storm. Rapid intensification into a Category 5 hurricane is not out of the question this weekend."

Category 5 hurricanes have sustained wind speeds of at least 157 mph.

How often do hurricanes hit Jamaica?

Based on historical data, a hurricane hits Jamaica about once every 10-11 years, on average, according to the Jamaican government. A hurricane gets close (without a direct hit) about every 4 years or so.

Over the years, many hurricanes have neared Jamaica, including Category 4 Hurricane Ivan (2004), Category 4 Hurricane Dean (2007), and a direct hit from Hurricane Sandy in 2012.

The strongest recorded hurricane hit was Hurricane Gilbert in 1988, which made landfall as a high-end Category 3.

Contributing: Julia Gomez and Gabe Hauari, USA TODAY

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Hurricane forecasts say Melissa could be a 'slow-motion disaster'

Reporting by Doyle Rice, USA TODAY / USA TODAY

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