Plaid Cymru, the Welsh nationalist party, has stripped Labour of the Welsh Parliament seat of Caerphilly, with Reform taking second place.

It is a ‘wow’ moment in British politics. Many had predicted a seat change here, given recent polling.

Nonetheless it represents a thunderous result in the context of Labour’s long dominance in Wales.

It is also, perhaps, the clearest signal yet of a fundamental realignment taking place in what has been one of the modern world’s most politically predictable nations.

Caerphilly’s historic voting history

Until the death of Hefin David in August, which triggered this by-election, Caerphilly had only ever had a Labour Senedd member.

The party had also won every single contest for the Westminster seat since Alfred Onions’ victory in 1918.

Caerphilly

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