Some Social Security benefit payments feel as if they may be coming late in May. That's because Wednesdays land later in the month than typical.
Some Social Security benefit payments feel as if they may be coming late in May. That's because Wednesdays land later in the month than typical.

Seniors will get a 2.8% raise in their monthly Social Security check in 2026, likely disappointing most Americans, according to a survey by nonprofit advocacy group AARP.

A 2.8% cost-of-livng, or COLA, increase means Social Security benefits will rise by about $56, on average, per month starting in January, when COLA kicks in, the Social Security Administration said. Letters will be mailed in December to let beneficiaries know what their new monthly will be, SSA said. Those with a personal my Social Security account can view their COLA notice online sooner.

Annual COLA is meant to help seniors keep up with inflation, but only 22% of Americans age 50-plus agree that a COLA of around 3% is enough to keep up with rising prices, while 77% disagree, the survey of 1,000 seniors between September 18 and 23 showed. The sentiment is consistent across political party affiliations, with 75% of Republicans, 82% of Independents and 79% of Democrats expressing disagreement.

Next year, "rising Medicare premiums alone could fully consume the COLA for many seniors in 2026,” said Mary Johnson, an independent Social Security and Medicare policy analyst.

How much would Medicare take of Social Security?

Medicare Part B premiums and some Part D drug plan premiums in 2026 may challenge the biggest dollar jump of $21.60 in program history set in 2022. Part B premiums have not been announced yet, but Medicare Trustees estimate that the standard monthly Part B premium would rise $21.50 to $206.50 in 2026 from from $185 in 2025.

Part B covers outpatient care, doctors' services, durable medical equipment, and preventive service. The optional Part D covers prescription drugs.

The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) will announce in late November what Medicare Part B will cost, SSA said. SSA needs to know the premium to accurately calculate 2026 Social Security checks and notify beneficiaries. Medicare Part B premiums are automatically deducted from most Social Security beneficiaries' monthly payments.

Meanwhile, some Part D plans are increasing premiums by as much as $50 in 2026, the maximum allowed under a Part D Premium Stabilization Demonstration Program, according to nonprofit, nonpartisan research organization KFF.

“To complicate things there are fewer stand-alone Part D plans to choose from,” Johnson said. The total number of prescription drug plans has dropped by half since 2024, KFF said.

As an example, Johnson said her current drug plan would cost $1,079, up from $395 this year. After looking around, she found her least expensive choice of stand-alone Part D plans that covers her two common generic drugs, would cost about $605, including premiums, if she switches. But her total premium and drug costs would still increase by $210, a hefty 53%, next year from her current plan.

"Yes, a very far cry from a 2.8% COLA increase,” Johnson said.

Is the 2026 COLA larger than normal?

The 2.8% increase for next year is below average. Over the last decade the COLA increase has averaged 3.1%, and COLA in 2025 was 2.5%, SSA said.

The 2026 COLA also is already below inflation. Annual inflation in September was 3.0%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said. That's above the Federal Reserve's 2% target and the long-term average of around 2.5%. Many economists expect inflation above 3% next year, boosted in part by President Donald Trump's tariffs, continuing to outpace the backward looking COLA and further squeezing seniors’ already limited budgets.

"Even if your income goes up a few percent, inflation compounds quietly every year — working against you the same way compound interest works for you," said Kim Scouller, financial professional with World Financial Group. "When prices rise faster than benefits, every dollar loses a bit of its power."

What should COLA be?

When AARP asked survey participants what COLA would help them afford everyday living expenses, 72% of older Americans said 5% or higher, with 26% indicating that an 8% increase would be necessary to keep pace with rising costs. Again, responses to this question were consistent across political party affiliations, the advocacy group said.

What will happen to seniors?

Many seniors may fall into poverty if they can't keep up with rising expenses, experts said.

"A few extra dollars (from COLA) won’t begin to give them true financial security," said Ramsey Alwin, president and chief executive of the National Council on Aging, a nonprofit focused on issues of older Americans.

Poverty among adults at least 65 years old rose in 2024 from the prior year, the Census Bureau reported on in August. It was the only age group that saw an increase. Based on the most comprehensive measure of poverty, the poverty rate rose from 14.2% to 15%, the highest level among all age groups.

How is COLA calculated?

The Social Security Administration bases its COLA each year on average annual increases in the consumer price index for urban wage earners and clerical workers (CPI-W) from July through September.

The index for urban wage earners largely reflects the broad index the Labor Department releases each month, although it sometimes differs slightly. Last month, the overall consumer price index rose 3.0% and the index for urban wage earners increased 2.9%.

How many Americans receive Social Security?

In August, more than 74.5 million people received Social Security, according to the Social Security Administration. These beneficiaries include retired workers, disabled workers, survivors of deceased workers and those receiving Supplemental Security Income.

Medora Lee is a money, markets and personal finance reporter at USA TODAY. You can reach her at mjlee@usatoday.com and subscribe to our free Daily Money newsletter for personal finance tips and business news every Monday through Friday morning.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Social Security 2026 COLA is 2.8%, but seniors will still fall into poverty. Here's why

Reporting by Medora Lee, USA TODAY / USA TODAY

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