I’ve long argued that making Texas statewide races consistently competitive for Democrats requires time, patience, and sustained, multicycle investment. And I still believe that’s true. But the last decade or so of Texas politics has also been marked by large swings in Democratic vote share in statewide and presidential races, with opportunities sometimes arising at unexpected times. Right now, the data and political dynamics suggests something few could have predicted even a year ago: 2026 offers Democrats a rare near-term opportunity to win a U.S. Senate seat in Texas.

I know, I know, we’ve heard this story before, but hear me out. The 2026 Senate race is shaping up to be one where the stars may just align for Democratic victory. Texans, and especially Latinos, are souring on Donald

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