Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning (16) looks for an open receiver during the first quarter against the Kentucky Wildcats at Kroger Field in Lexington, Kentucky.

The No. 18 Texas Longhorns (5-2, 2-1 SEC) and Mississippi State Bulldogs (4-3, 0-3) meet Saturday at Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville, Mississippi. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:15 p.m. ET (SEC Network). Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's NCAA football odds around the Texas vs. Mississippi State odds and make our expert college football picks and predictions for the best bets.

Texas escaped with a 16-13 overtime win over the Kentucky Wildcats Oct. 18 but failed to cover as a 12-point road favorite as the Under (45.5) cashed. After the Longhorns’ defense held the Wildcats on fourth down in OT, K Mason Shipley sealed the victory with a 45-yard field goal. QB Arch Manning struggled through the air (12-for-27, 132 yards), while RB Quintrevion Wisner provided the team’s lone touchdown on the ground.

Mississippi State dropped its third straight game and suffered its 15th consecutive SEC loss, falling 23-21 to the Florida Gators Oct. 18. The Bulldogs did cover as 9.5-point road underdogs, and the Under (51) cashed. RB Davon Booth delivered a strong performance with 105 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns, while receivers Brenen Thompson and Anthony Evans III combined for 262 yards through the air.

The last meeting between Texas and Mississippi State came Sept. 28, 2024, in Austin, where the Longhorns earned a 35-13 victory but failed to cover as 37-point favorites. The Under (59) comfortably cashed.

– Rankings: US LBM Coaches Poll, conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports

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Texas at Mississippi State odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:25 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Texas -285 (bet $285 to win $100) | Mississippi State +230 (bet $100 to win $230)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Texas -7.5 (-105) | Mississippi State +7.5 (-115)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 47.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Texas at Mississippi State picks and predictions

Prediction

Texas 24, Mississippi State 20

Moneyline

PASS.

I like Texas (-285) to get a much-needed road victory, but it won't be easy, which is why I'm taking my bet to the spread.

Against the spread

BET MISSISSIPPI STATE +7.5 (-115).

Mississippi State hasn’t won an SEC game since 2022, but this weekend’s road trip to Texas represents its most realistic shot yet to break that streak. The Bulldogs have turned a corner under Jeff Lebby, playing with more discipline, physicality and efficiency compared to last year’s 2-win team. They’ve already pushed 2 Power 4 opponents to the wire — and their betting results back up the improvement: Mississippi State has covered in 6 of its last 7 games.

Texas, on the other hand, has not lived up to its billing. A program expected to chase a national title has instead stumbled through inconsistency, especially offensively. Manning has shown flashes, but he isn’t elevating the offense the way many expected in Year 1 as QB1. Texas’ offensive line remains a liability, and its run game has disappeared against quality defenses. The Longhorns have failed to cover in 5 of 7 games — a reflection of a team finding ways to win, but rarely convincingly.

Defensively, Texas is strong enough to control stretches of games, but opponents have been able to hang around due to the Longhorns’ stalled drives and limited explosive plays. That plays directly into Mississippi State’s strengths — shorten the game, run the ball with Booth, keep the pressure off QB Mike Wright and stay within striking distance.

Mississippi State has fought — and stayed competitive — against better teams than Texas this season. With ATS momentum and a far more balanced offense than a year ago, the Bulldogs are the sharper side.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 47.5 (-110).

The Under hit the last time Texas and Mississippi State met, and trends suggest a repeat may be coming. The Longhorns’ offense has been inconsistent behind Manning, contributing to the Under cashing in 5 of their 7 games. Meanwhile, Mississippi State has stayed Under in 3 of its last 4.

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This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: Texas Longhorns at Mississippi State Bulldogs odds, picks and predictions

Reporting by Drew Phelps, Sportsbook Wire / Sportsbook Wire

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