Michigan quarterback Bryce Underwood (19) makes a pass against Washington during the first half at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor on Saturday, Oct. 18, 2025.

The No. 24 Michigan Wolverines (5-2, 3-1 Big Ten) and the Michigan State Spartans (3-4, 0-4) meet Saturday at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing, Michigan. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET (NBC). Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's NCAA football odds around the Michigan vs. Michigan State odds and make our expert college football picks and predictions for the best bets.

Michigan leads all-time series 74-38-5, including the past 3 meetings. Michigan won 24-17 as a 3-point favorite in Ann Arbor last season on Oct. 26, 2024 as the Over (38.5) cashed.

In the most recent meeting in East Lansing, Michigan rolled up a 49-0 win as a 25-point favorite, taking care of the Over (47) on its own. The last win for Sparty in this series came on Oct. 30, 2021, a 37-33 win as a 4-point underdog as the Over (50.5) hit. Michigan is 5-2 against the spread (ATS) in the past 7 in the series, while the Over is 3-1 in the previous 4 encounters in his Great Lakes State rivalry.

Michigan upended Washington 24-7 as a 4-point favorite at The Big House last Saturday, while the Under (50.5) cashed. QB Bryce Underwood threw for 230 yards and 2 TDs, while RB Jordan Marshall rumbled for 133 yards and a TD. TE Zack Marshall posted 5 receptions for a team-best 72 yards and a score.

Michigan State was blown out 38-13 by No. 2 Indiana in Bloomington, Ind., last week, but it hung on for a cover as a 26-point underdog as the Over (49.5) cashed. QB Aidan Chiles threw for 243 yards and a TD, while he led the team with 48 rushing yards. WR Nick Marsh posted 7 grabs for 64 yards and a score.

The Spartans opened the season 3-0 straight up (SU), but 0-3 ATS. Since Sept. 20, Michigan State has dropped 4 in a row, but it has covered 3 of the past 4 outings. The Over is 5-1 in the past 6 games for Michigan State.

– Rankings: US LBM Coaches Poll, conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports

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Michigan at Michigan State odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:50 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Michigan -600 (bet $600 to win $100) | Michigan State +425 (bet $100 to win $425)
  • Against the spread: Michigan -14 (-110) | Michigan State +14 (-110)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 47.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Michigan at Michigan State picks and predictions

Prediction

Michigan 27, Michigan State 16

Moneyline

Michigan (-600) will cost you 6 times your potential return, and that's too much risk for not nearly enough reward. Even if you were to throw the Wolverines into a multi-leg parlay, the reward is not worth the risk.

PASS, and look to the spread instead.

Against the spread

MICHIGAN STATE +14 (-110) is worth playing as a 2-TD spread is a big number in this heated rivalry game.

While Sparty has struggled to cobble together wins, it has managed to routinely tick off covers.

Michigan, on the other hand, wins with defense. It has scored 24 or fewer points in 2 of the past 3 games, but it has also allowed 24 or fewer points in 5 of 7 outings. As a double-digit favorite, Michigan is just 1-2 ATS this season.

Over/Under

UNDER 47.5 (-110) is a good play in this rivalry game in East Lansing.

The Under has cashed in 3 straight games for Michigan. In the span, the Wolverines have averaged 20.3 PPG on offense, while allowing 16.0 PPG.

For the Spartans, the offense has gone silent in the past 2 games, and Chiles might not be 100 percent healthy. The concern with playing the Under is the Michigan State defense, as it has allowed 38 or more points in 4 straight games. But, Michigan hasn't really exhibited signs of putting up that kind of offense.

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: Michigan Wolverines at Michigan State Spartans odds, picks and predictions

Reporting by Daniel Dobish, Sportsbook Wire / Sportsbook Wire

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