President Donald Trump’s plan to bolster his party’s numbers in Congress through Texas’ redrawn congressional districts stands in jeopardy after new data shows a key voting bloc in the state fleeing the Republican Party in droves, creating what journalist Jason Easley characterized on Saturday as “a problem for Trump.”

“Trump won 55% of the Hispanic vote in Texas, and when Republicans set out to try to save their US House majority through gerrymandering, they counted on Texas and those Hispanics who voted for Trump in 2024,” Easley wrote in an analysis on PolitcusUSA, a left-leaning news website.

“...Trump has been deploying ICE to terrorize Hispanics in the United States since he took office. Trump assured Hispanics that he would only deport criminals, but it looks like Trump’s definition of criminal is pretty much anybody with brown skin. The result has created a problem for Trump and the key piece of the Republican gerrymander strategy.”

Trump secured 55% of the vote from Texas Hispanics in 2024, a 13-point increase over his numbers in 2020, and a poll published in January showed that 44% of Texas Hispanic adults held a favorable view of Trump.

According to a new poll published on Saturday, however, Texas Hispanic adults “have soured on Trump,” Easley wrote, with just 25% now indicating that they held a favorable view of Trump. And among Hispanic Republicans, support for Trump fell by 18 points, from 83% before Trump took office to 65% today.

“If Hispanics flee Trump, the Republican gerrymander strategy crumbles. With 2026 looking like Democrats could win 20-40+ seats in the House, there aren’t enough districts for Republicans to keep the majority, no matter what they do,” Easley wrote.

“However, if Trump’s numbers continue to decline, it's possible the gerrymander could backfire and add to a potential Democratic majority. The Republican gerrymander strategy depends on Hispanics in Texas, and if those voters don’t stick with Trump, all bets are off for 2026.