China's Communist Party recently convened for its Fourth Plenary Session in Beijing, focusing on national development goals for the next five years. However, the meeting was marked by a notable absence of members, with only 168 out of 205 full Central Committee members attending, the lowest turnout since the Cultural Revolution. This decline in attendance is attributed to President Xi Jinping's ongoing purges, particularly within the military.

Just before the plenum, Xi executed a significant purge, removing nine high-ranking military officials, including a vice-chair of the Central Military Commission and two former defense ministers. This was reported as Xi's largest single-day military purge. Analysts noted that many of the purged officials had connections to the Eastern Theater Command, which oversees military operations around Taiwan. In their place, Xi appointed Zhang Shengmin, a loyalist known for his anti-corruption efforts, to a key military position, indicating Xi's intent to consolidate control rather than prepare for a transition.

Experts suggest that Xi's approach stems from a deep-seated fear of creating a rival power center by naming a successor. This concern is rooted in historical precedents, as Xi's father was purged during Mao's regime. As Xi ages, the pool of potential successors diminishes, with many of his closest allies in their 60s and lacking the necessary experience for leadership in the coming decades. Each purge not only eliminates threats but also potential successors, echoing the strategies of past leaders like Mao and Deng Xiaoping, who delayed naming successors until forced to do so.

The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) plays a crucial role in China's political landscape, often influencing leadership decisions. Xi has spent over a decade reshaping the military through purges and loyalty tests, understanding that military backing is essential for political survival. As tensions rise over Taiwan, Xi has instructed the PLA to prepare for potential operations by 2027, coinciding with the expected emergence of a new leadership cohort.

However, Xi's reluctance to designate a successor poses risks. If the military becomes overly politicized or if intelligence assessments are skewed by loyalty, the likelihood of miscalculations increases. While some view Xi as a powerful leader akin to Mao, others believe his grip on power is precarious, with the potential for elite dissent.

As China navigates its trade relations, particularly with the United States, Xi's strategy appears effective. Yet, his gamble of not establishing a clear successor raises questions about his legacy and the future stability of China, a nuclear-armed superpower. Currently, Xi's vision for China remains unaccompanied by a designated heir, leaving the future uncertain.