There’s a new and unwelcome question being kicked around in offices, cafes and kitchens: what if the next move in interest rates is up?

Two weeks ago we got news that unemployment had jumped and it seemed the Reserve Bank of Australia was a sure thing to cut rates on Melbourne Cup day. Inflation jumps to 3.2%, dashing hopes of a Melbourne Cup day rate cut for homeowners Read more

Fast forward to Wednesday and we get the shock news that underlying inflation – the RBA’s preferred measure that removes the impact of really big price moves like electricity – climbed for the first time since 2022.

Now nobody will take that Melbourne Cup day bet on lower rates.

“A rate cut before Christmas did seem reasonable, but that’s not on the cards any more,” says Cherelle Murphy, the chief ec

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