The top prize of the night is, of course, Game of the Year — and there are clear indicators of what makes a Game of the Year at The Game Awards, based on eleven years of data. We used these metrics to correctly predict last year’s winner, Astro Bot. We also used them to correctly call all six nominees for Game of the Year, which were announced alongside all the other categories on Nov. 17. Below, we pick the likely winner and rank the rest of the six nominees in order of their likeliness to win. The latter part is somewhat arbitrary, as this year there is a very, very clear favorite. We’ll find out whether there will be a shock upset at The Game Awards on Dec. 11.

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