Sherrill Holds Razor-Thin Lead Against Ciattarelli, Nation’s Most Accurate Pollster Finds

By Cecilia Levine From Daily Voice

New Jersey’s 2025 governor’s race is shaping up to be one of the closest in recent history, with Democrat Mikie Sherrill holding a razor-thin lead over Republican Jack Ciattarelli, according to a brand-new poll out this week.

The survey of 1,639 likely voters found Sherrill with 50.2 percent support and Ciattarelli close behind at 49.3 percent — a difference well within the poll’s two-point margin of error, according to AtlasIntel’s 2025 New Jersey Gubernatorial Election Poll conducted Oct. 25 to 30.

The poll shows a near-even split among voters as the two candidates vie to replace term-limited Gov. Phil Murphy, whose approval rating stands at 43 percent approve to 53 percent disapprove.

Inflation and affordability ranked as the top issue for 68.8 percent of voters, followed by taxes (34.2 percent) and the economy and jobs (24.8 percent), the poll found.

When asked which candidate would better handle major issues, respondents slightly favored Sherrill on education, healthcare, and reproductive rights, while Ciattarelli held small leads on taxes and crime, according to AtlasIntel.

The survey also found that 49.2 percent of New Jersey voters blamed Republicans for the recent federal government shutdown, while 44.5 percent blamed Democrats, and 6.3 percent blamed both parties, the poll said.

AtlasIntel used its Random Digital Recruitment methodology for the survey, which has a 95 percent confidence level and a margin of error of ±2 percentage points, according to the poll. The firm was rated the most accurate pollster in the U.S. with an A+ grade in Silver Bulletin’s 2025 rankings.