The desert decides everything. Phoenix Raceway, one mile of slick asphalt, blistering heat, and unrelenting pressure, is once again where a full season’s work will come down to 312 laps. This year’s Championship 4 lineup, Denny Hamlin, Chase Briscoe, William Byron, and Kyle Larson, represents four distinct storylines: experience, redemption, momentum, and mastery.

But who, statistically, holds the edge to lift the Bill France Cup?

To find out, each finalist was evaluated across four crucial metrics: overall 2025 season performance, Next Gen-era results at Phoenix, Championship 4 history, and recent form. The data points tell a story that narrows the field to a clear favorite under the desert lights.

Overall season

A championship bid begins with a season-long foundation of speed, wins,

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