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Week 8 was a grind. We laid eight bets with four winners, but since the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' obvious romp against an overmatched New Orleans Saints team was a double-up, we still managed to squeak out a unit's worth of profit. That takes us to plus-10.5 units as the regular season's halfway point looms.
Which, hey, not too bad.
Week 9 offers some more opportunities to fade the NFL's worst teams but with caveats. The New York Giants are down their top two skill players against the San Francisco 49ers. But while the Niners are modest 2.5-point favorites, they're also staring down the "don't bet a west coast team in an early east coast game" trope. The Chicago Bears have a get-right opportunity against the Cincinnati Bengals, but no one's sure if Joe Flacco will be available to weave his old man magic (chucking it up to Ja'Marr Chase or Tee Higgins) or if we'll be seeing more awful Jake Browning snaps. The Arizona Cardinals are playing football, which has never not felt like a trap.
Let's talk about this week's tastiest lines with our resident NFL betting expert, the Rhode Island Scumbag. And hey, if you're reading this and doing some last minute fantasy tinkering, can I interest you in some stash picks, trade-high plays and add/drop recommendations?
All Scumbag analysis is in blockquotes below. My non-Scumbag bets follow.
Our profit streak unceremoniously came to an end with a 2-2 record on games and a prop bet loss. Favorites dominated the betting storyline last week, with 12 of 14 games seeing the favorites not only win, but outright cover. The two underdogs that pulled off victories? We bet against both!
The kicker was the Atlanta Falcons not only getting their doors blown off, but Bijan Robinson’s terrible, horrible, no good, very bad game sinking our yardage prop (thanks, Kirko). However, I can’t get too worked up about it. We were not under the impression that Penix was actually going to miss the game as of last Thursday, and the same goes for Drake London. Clearly, the Falcons aren’t the same with the man formerly known as Kirk Cousins under center compounded with missing their best wideout. Oh well. Live and learn. I’ll try to get back into the black again this week.
Here are some games where I think we can make a tidy profit.
Scumbag Lock of the Week I: New England Patriots (-4.5) vs Atlanta Falcons (one unit)
If you have been paying attention, the Patriots are good against the run. Really good. To this point, they have yet to give up 50 yards to a single RB this season and are averaging 77.1 rushing yards against/game. Not exactly the cushy landing spot for the beat up Atlanta Falcons were hoping to see.
Atlanta has also not played well on the road this season. The Falcons are 1-2 and the most points they put up was 22. Now they get to face an offense that just carved up the Brown defense and the one man wrecking crew of Myles Garrett. With the Patriots playing so well (6-2 against the spread) and the Falcons clearly stumbling, this one is an easy call.
Scumbag Lock of the Week II: Indianapolis Colts (-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (one unit)
Indiana Jones and the Colts come to Pittsburgh looking to keep rolling. Winners of four straight, they now take on an older, but efficient, Aaron Rodgers and a defense that has seen better days.
I think there is a mismatch on both sides of the ball here. Jones, Johnathan Taylor and company should have their way with the beat up Steelers defense. Meanwhile, Rodgers should find himself under duress most of the afternoon. The biggest problem for the Steelers will be shutting down the various offensive outlets the Colts have. Either Jones throws it all over the yard, or Taylor runs wild. Those have been the two typical outcomes this year for the Colts, and I don’t think that changes this week.
Scumbag Lock of the Week III: Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5) at Buffalo Bills (one unit)
This feels so gross to me. I can’t stand the Chiefs [Ed. note: My guy has some THOUGHTS about Life of a Showgirl]. However, I do see an opportunity here. The Bills really still haven’t beat any of the top teams in the NFL. Yes, they had a nice bounce back week against the Andy Dalton-led Carolina Panthers, but the offense should be met with a much higher level of resistance this week.
Patrick Mahomes looks great with go-to receiver in Rashee Rice back in the mix and has the offense humming. This most likely will be a back and forth affair, but at the end of the day, it feels like a Kansas City victory for the visiting Chiefs this week.
Scumbag Lock of the Week IV: Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) at Washington Commanders (one unit)
Let’s take another road favorite in the Seahawks. They have been playing some great football of late, winning three of four with the lone loss a tight one to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Fresh off their bye, they face a banged up Commanders team.
It sounds like the Commanders could have Jayden Daniels back in the mix this week, but Terry McLaurin has been ruled out once again. Sam Darnold is consistently putting this offense in the position to be successful, showing off his great connection with Jaxon Smith-Njigba. I think the shorthanded Commanders have their hands full. Seattle’s run defense has been really tough this year, and unfortunately for the Commanders, should lead to a long day for the RBs and possibly Daniels himself. Seattle should continue their ascent in the NFC.
- Last week: 2-3, -1 unit
- Season to date: 20-14 (.588), +5.4 units
My non-Scumbag bets: Indianapolis Colts -3 at the Pittsburgh Steelers, Denver Broncos +2.5 at the Houston Texans and New England Patriots -4.5 vs. the Atlanta Falcons (one unit each).
At some point the Colts are due for a letdown. I don't think it will happen against a Steelers defense that ranks 25th in EPA allowed per snap. Pittsburgh is 1-2 on the sandlot turf of not-Heinz Field, having lost to the Seattle Seahawks and Green Bay Packers and beaten... the Browns. That defense gave up more than 900 total yards its last two games.
Yes, the Steelers need a get-right win with the Baltimore Ravens looming in their rear view, but this is a tough spot to get it. Indianapolis has the league's second-highest pressure rate (39.9 percent) and its 22nd-highest blitz rate (23.4), which means Pittsburgh will have to dink and dunk its way to a win. And Indy pulls ahead early, it can lean on Jonathan Taylor against the league's 19th-ranked run defense.
The Texans' success has been predicated on keeping C.J. Stroud's pockets clean. They're 3-1 in their last four games and allowed nine pressures in each of those three wins. But the one loss saw the Seahawks notch 17 pressures and three sacks as Stroud's offense managed only 17 points in primetime. Bad news! The Broncos 45.9 percent pressure rate is six points higher than the second-place Colts this year.
So while DeMeco Ryans will probably lock Bo Nix up in hell, it may not matter. This feels like a Denver win in a rock fight.
We've bet the Patriots each of the last three weeks and won each time. Now they're at home against a Falcons team lacking an identity. The biggest concern will be Bijan Robinson with Michael Penix Jr. hurting and Kirk Cousins decidedly not back. Good news! The Patriots have the league's fifth-ranked run defense and are allowing only 3.5 yards per carry this fall.
Bonus non-Scumbag bets!: Dallas Cowboys -2.5 vs. the Arizona Cardinals (two units) and Caleb Williams OVER 250 passing yards (one unit to win 1.5)
Things have been going well the last few weeks. Let's ruin that with a couple of riskier plays.
Caleb Williams needs a statement game after doing the little things right but making too many mistakes to topple the Baltimore Ravens in Week 8. Last year, a loss in the mid-Atlantic sent a 4-2 Bears team spiraling. This year, they get to follow up a brutal loss with a game against the NFL's second-worst passing defense. The only fly in the ointment may be a Jake Browning start and big Chicago lead that means throwing the ball less often. Buuuuut I've seen enough of the Bears defense to think even Browning or a hurt Joe Flacco can keep pace. Parlay this with OVER 50.5 points if you're feeling froggy.
Want to get real wild with it? Williams' OVER 300 passing yards pays out approximately 5:1. I'm just saying!
The Cowboys/Cardinals line suggests Arizona is the better team on a neutral field. The Cardinals two wins this season came in Weeks 1 and 2 against the Saints and Panthers. So, no, I don't think that's accurate.
- Last week: 3-2, +1 unit
- Season to date: 17-16-1 (.515), +5.1 units
This article originally appeared on For The Win: Best NFL Scumbag bets Week 9: Indiana Jones vs. the slumping Steelers defense
Reporting by Christian D'Andrea, For The Win / For The Win
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