Trump's tariffs to face Supreme Court scrutiny

The Supreme Court on Nov. 5 will debate the future of the worldwide tariffs President Donald Trump has used to raise revenue, spur manufacturing and exert political pressure on other countries. The tariffs are the centerpiece of Trump’s economic agenda and a major foreign policy tool.

Here’s a visual look at the significance of the case for the economy, the federal budget and consumers:

Economic impact of tariffs compared to major Biden initiative

The Supreme Court has said in recent years that the executive branch can’t take actions that have a major impact on the economy or are a matter of great “political significance” without clear authorization from Congress.

A lower court that found Trump lacked clear authority to impose sweeping tariffs noted that their economic impact is much greater than the cost of policies the high court blocked during the administration of President Joe Biden, including student loan debt relief.

Here’s how the size of the tariffs compares with the debt relief plan the court rejected in 2023:

Impacts on consumers and businesses

Trump has argued that countries wanting to sell their goods to Americans will absorb the import taxes to remain in the world’s largest consumer market. But independent analysts, including at Goldman Sachs and S&P Global, have estimated that U.S. consumers and businesses are shouldering much of the cost.

The Tax Foundation, a nonprofit think tank, estimates the tariffs amount to an average tax increase of $1,300 per household in 2025.

The tariffs are the equivalent of increasing the corporate income tax rate from 21% to 36%, according to the Penn Wharton Budget Model.

Impact of Trump’s tariffs on the federal budget

Republicans are counting on the tariff revenues to offset some of the cost of Trump’s sweeping bill, cutting taxes and transforming other federal policies. But if the Supreme Court rules that much of Trump’s tariffs are illegal, lawmakers will need to find other offsets to avoid digging an even bigger budget hole.

The tariff revenue is larger than what the government would collect through a 1% payroll tax or by reducing military personnel by 17%, according to the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

Trump’s tariffs are unpopular

Trump has argued that tariffs will bring manufacturing and jobs back to the United States, but the public hasn’t gotten behind them.

Six in 10 Americans disapprove of the Trump administration's tariff policies, according to an August survey by the Pew Research Center.

Majorities of Americans think the long-term effects will be mostly negative both for the country (55%) and for themselves and their families (55%).

As with many political issues, there’s an ideological divide. Republicans have mixed views on the tariffs, while Democrats are largely negative.

SOURCE USA TODAY Network reporting and research; Congressional Budget Office; Tax Foundation, Penn Wharton Budget Model; Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget; Pew Research Center

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Supreme court to decide fate of Trump's sweeping tariff policy on Nov. 5

Reporting by Jennifer Borresen and Maureen Groppe, USA TODAY / USA TODAY

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