While the U.S. dodged earlier predictions this year of a mild recession, Cal State Fullerton economists say “thorny issues” remain related to inflation and “alarming” hiring conditions.

On Thursday, economists Anil Puri and Mira Farka made their predictions for 2026, with their outlook for this year falling short of more dire expectations forecast last year. A mild recession, which they previously predicted would land a year ago , was pushed to late 2025 — but a “gradual downshift” never came.

This year, the economists said the U.S. economy has shown “remarkable resilience,” “outperforming dire predictions, not just barely, but by a wide margin.”

The economists said they wouldn’t be surprised if the remainder of the year is marked by “a few more bumps, with payrolls weakening fur

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