Woodland Park, NJ -- April 24, 2025 -- Editorial board meeting with Rep. Mikie Sherrill who is running for governor in the Democratic primary.

President Donald Trump's juggernaut second-term agenda that has swept across the nation will receive its first major referendum as millions of voters flock to the polls for a handful of critical off-year elections.

Democrats and their allies who have been locked out of power in Washington since January have scrambled to organize opposition in many ways, including holding marathon speeches in Congress, filing lawsuits against the administration's controversial moves and filling up the streets with mass protests.

But the Nov. 4 contests present the clearest political judgment yet of Trump's expanding dominance to date that will also set the table for the future of his Make America Great Again movement, next year's midterm elections and the not-to-distant 2028 presidential contest.

In every race, whether the two elections for governor in New Jersey and Virginia, the theatrical sprint for New York City mayor; or California's bold entry into the redistricting arms race, Trump is evoked, oftentimes to galvanize his supporters or alarm his opponents.

These elections are going to also be used as a yardstick measuring the direction and success of Democrats, who are featuring two contenders - Abigail Spanberger in Virginia and Mikie Sherrill in New Jersey - who were part of the party's 2018 successes in combating Trump during his first term midterm election.

"What's interesting about both is that they really embody the first part of the political resistance to Donald Trump," said Matthew Dallek, a historian and professor of political management at George Washington University.

"I don't think it's an accident that you have two candidates who emerged from the Trump 1.0 resistance who are both favored to win these really important off-year gubernatorial elections," he added. "It suggests that the kind of patriotic, pro-national security, tough-on-Law-and-Order mold still resonates within the Democratic Party, and it may well still resonate among the general electorate."

But part of the Democrat's yearlong re-brand is a growing and radical progressive populism embodied by New York Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani, a socialist-aligned candidate who is winning over mainstream Democrats and on the verge of running the largest U.S. city after awakening the political left.

As the president tests the limits of his executive authority and takes a bulldozer -- in some cases literally -- approach to changing Washington and the country, the ramifications for Republicans and Democrats are going to be played out in these results.

A MAGA upset would rock Dems 2026 hopes

Political forecasters and pollsters are mostly giving Democrats the edge in every race, and sweeping those contests would paint a more liberal portrait going into next year that Americans are increasingly dissatisfied with Trump's sterns actions.

But MAGA activists and other conservative-leaning leaders believe that Republicans can stop that narrative from taking root in 2026, when Democrats hope to take back the U.S. House of Representatives.

"If the Democrats don't win New Jersey and Virginia by significant margins, it's blunted," John Fredericks, a Trump ally and conservative radio host in Virginia, told USA TODAY.

Republicans see their best hope in New Jersey, where GOP gubernatorial nominee Jack Ciattarelli has fully embraced Trump and the MAGA presence in this campaign after rejecting him in his previous bid for governor in 2021, where he lost by a razor-thin margin.

Trump has mostly stayed away from the campaign trail in 2025, but Ciaterrelli told the USA TODAY Network that he speaks to the president regularly, underscoring that any association with commander-in-chief must be handled carefully.

Conservative commentators argue liberals should coast to victory in these two states given that Trump lost them in last year’s presidential election.

If Ciattarelli prevails, it would make the 63-year-old former assemblyman a MAGA star and credit him with stiff arming Democrats.

Most prognosticators don't believe votes will deliver Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears an upset over Spanberger in Virginia, however, and conservatives in the Old Dominion State talk more about other Republicans, such as lieutenant governor candidate John Reid, a rising figure in the MAGA ranks.

In the race for Virginia attorney general candidate, for instance, Republicans have spent more on aiding GOP nominee Jason Miyares in the final weeks than on the governor's race.

But the stability of Trump's coalition without him at the helm will be in question if Democrats win in New Jersey. That may explain why some allies such as former White House advisor Steve Bannon are pushing for an unconstitutional third term that the president has also toyed with at some points and downplayed at others.

Trumpism's future will be as much a part of the national conversation in 2026 for Republicans as it will be for Democrats.

On the GOP side, there are emerging cracks in the MAGA movement, whether it is right-wing gripes over U.S. ties to Israel; grumblings over releasing files connected to the Jeffrey Epstein child sex trafficking case; or rising concerns about millions losing food benefits or skyrocketing health care premiums amid the ongoing federal government shutdown.

But Federicks said a good showing for Republicans in any of these off-year races gives the president and his allies more enthusiasm, and will reverse concerns among GOP voters who fret that Trump's last two years in office will be a slog if Democrats did take back control of either chamber in Congress.

"The national narrative goes from, 'Oh, Trump is done, they're going to impeach him' and they lose 25 seats to 'holy crap, here's two states that are not red that really seem to like what the president's doing,' and maybe they pick up seats," he said.

Democratic campaigns offer differing comeback paths

Democrats are figuring out a much more compelling - and complicated - puzzle of their own going into next year as the Nov. 4 results will help show how the party is figuring out how it can outpace MAGA amid Trump's expanding authority as president.

In one lane there is Mamdani, a 34-year-old member of the Democratic Socialists of America whose online fluency and pledges to attack New York's rising costs for regular people has awakened a new generation of progressives ready for their own populist movement.

That rise is in sharp contrast to the Virginia and New Jersey campaigns, where Democrats have put forward less viral but more predictable contenders in Spanberger and Sherill.

The two former Capitol Hill roommates both have national security backgrounds and offer platforms that speak to the affordability crisis, too. But their messages avoid stark class attacks on billionaires and are more aimed at winning over swing voters rather than recruiting new supporters with progressive tilts.

Sherill initially praised Mamdani's focus on costs and raising government efficiency standards, for instance. But the 53-year-old Democratic congresswoman who currently represents the New Jersey suburbs west of New York backed off in the last stretch of the gubernatorial campaign after a round of GOP attacks, telling reporters after her Oct. 9 debate with Ciaterrelli that she is "not getting involved" in New York's mayoral race.

How Democratic candidates and incumbents responded to Mamdani served as a source of conflict during his campaign.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., finally endorsed Mamdani after weeks of questions and demands from the liberal base. Comedian Jon Stewart mocked Jeffries for his tardiness in an October interview, sarcastically calling it a "brave, brave endorsement" by the Democratic establishment.

"We're living in an outsider moment," Adam Green, co-founder of the influential Progressive Change Campaign Committee, told USA TODAY. "Today's politics are not about left versus right. They're more accurately about outsider rage versus creatures of the inside."

Progressives running in 2026 and beyond are on the lookout for a Mamdani win with 50% or more of the vote, as well as a possible Sherill loss. If that happens, the left is expected to try taking even bolder positions on populist values, such as challenging the role billionaires play in politics and the economy.

Should Sherill prevail - polling indicates New Jersey is a dead heat - it will encourage more moderate voices in next year's midterms and beyond who will argue that outside of urban centers, such as New York City, the party must vie for less ideologically-aligned voters.

An Oct. 29 survey by Quinnipiac University found Mamdani holding a 10% lead in his battle with Cuomo overall, and a commanding 28% lead among Democratic voters. But among independents the two were tied at 34%.

California enters redistricting wars as 2028 jockeying begins

Outside of the candidate-versus-candidates horserace, California's entry into the redistricting battle carries a much wider ramification going forward.

Voters in the Golden State are set decide on a Nov. 4 ballot initiative, known as Proposition 50, that would allow legislators to redraw their 52-member congressional boundaries instead of a nonpartisan commission. Democrats are hoping to create five new seats out of California that would be in their favor.

California Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom has spearheaded the fight, which makes this a national test of his political might that has been set up as a daring challenge against Trump and his allies as they pressure several GOP-controlled states to redo their maps in order to keep a majority in Congress.

Recent polling gives Proposition 50 the edge heading into Election Day, but political experts say the California governor will have to win big or risk losing some luster as he traverses through a shadow 2028 presidential primary that so far lacks a clear favorite.

Other would-be White House contenders are also already making their own moves in the fall elections that could help set up possible 2028 bids.

Former Vice President Kamala Harris, a fellow Californian, hasn't ruled out another White House run amid her book tour, but like Trump she's been off the 2025 campaign trail as Democrats still digest last year's loss.

Others such as Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., and Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, are taking more visible roles that add to their profile. Ocasio-Cortez has been rallying for Mamdani in the New York City mayoral race and Beshear, who will be leading Democratic Governor's Association in 2026, has lent his voice to Spanberger in Virginia.

Then there is Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, one of the highest profile contenders rumored to be running for president who faces a reelection bid of his own in 2026. He holds a 60% approval rating in his state, according to surveys, and has been wielding that popularity in state Supreme Court races this November that national Democrats have put their weight behind to protect Pennsylvania's 5-2 liberal majority.

Keystone State voters will decide on Nov. 4 whether to extend the terms of three Democratic-leaning justices in a race that Shapiro has pitched as a referendum on "the threats to our freedoms."

"They’ve proven we can count on them to protect a woman’s access to abortion and birth control — and stand up for all our freedoms," Shapiro said in a 30-second spot supporting the justices.

Contributing: Zac Anderson

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Why Trump's agenda is on voters' minds even if he's not on the 2025 ballot

Reporting by Phillip M. Bailey, USA TODAY / USA TODAY

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