Financial markets are obsessed with AI, and the broader public is aware of its looming impact on jobs and wages. Yet for the Federal Reserve, the concern has barely registered. This isn’t because its policymakers think AI doesn’t matter. It’s because they have no idea how its potentially vast repercussions will play out — and no good tools for shaping the outcome.

Last week, as Amazon cut thousands of corporate positions and Nvidia’s market capitalization climbed to $5 trillion, Chair Jerome Powell was asked about the subject during the news conference that followed the Fed’s latest policy announcement. A significant number of companies, he said, "are either announcing that they are not going to be doing much hiring, or actually doing layoffs, and much of the time they’re talking about AI

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