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Analysts who draw inferences from election data have a tendency to overinterpret. Already, politicians have attributed Democratic victories in the 2025 off-year elections to the government shutdown , the filibuster , and the socialist takeover of the Democratic Party . But Occam’s Razor applies to elections as much as to anything else: all other things being equal, the simpler explanation is likely the correct one. And the simplest explanation for any American election result has remained consistent for decades: “It’s the economy, stupid.”

In late September, Pew Research found that nearly three-quarters (74%) of Americans rated the economy as “fair” or “poor,” while only 26% viewed economic conditions as “excellent” or “good.” Even among Republicans, less th

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