UK grocery inflation slows as supermarkets ramp up promotions, says Worldpanel

A shopper looks at fruit and vegetables inside an ALDI supermarket near Altrincham, Britain, February 20, 2023. REUTERS/Phil Noble

By James Davey

LONDON (Reuters) -British grocery inflation slowed to 4.7% in the four weeks to November 2 as grocers ramped up Christmas promotions, industry data showed on Tuesday, providing a little relief to consumers bracing for further tax rises in this month's government budget.

The figure from Worldpanel by Numerator (formerly Kantar), which provides an early indication of pricing pressures ahead of official inflation data on November 19, compared with 5.2% in last month's report.

Official data published last month showed overall British inflation held steady at 3.8% in September, with food inflation slowing.

Worldpanel said prices were rising fastest in markets such as chocolate confectionery, fresh meat and coffee and were falling fastest in household paper, sugar confectionery and dog food.

It said grocery sales grew 3.2% over the four-week period year-on-year - below the rate of inflation, indicating sales on a volume basis were down.

Worldpanel said spending on deals rose 9.4% versus an increase of 1.8% on full-priced goods.

Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Worldpanel, noted that just under 30% of spending at the grocers in October was on promoted items - "a figure that we expect to go even higher as we get closer to Christmas".

Market leader Tesco and number two player Sainsbury's saw sales growth of 5.9% and 5.2% respectively over the 12 weeks to November 2, Worldpanel said.

However, sales at number three Asda continued to fall - down 3.9%, with market share down a whole percentage point over the year to 11.6%.

Online supermarket Ocado remained the fastest growing British grocer with sales up 15.9%, while discounter Lidl GB remained the fastest growing bricks-and-mortar grocer with sales up 10.8%.

Separately on Tuesday, surveys showed overall spending by British consumers cooled last month as they waited to see how Black Friday deals and the November 26 budget would pan out.

UK supermarkets' market share and sales growth (%)

Market share Market % change in

12 weeks to share 12 sales

November 2 weeks to (year-on-ye

2025 November ar)

3 2024

Tesco 28.2 27.7 5.9

Sainsbury's 15.7 15.5 5.2

Asda 11.6 12.6 -3.9

Aldi 10.6 10.5 4.4

Morrisons 8.3 8.5 2.3

Lidl 8.2 7.7 10.8