2024 YR4, the "city-killer" asteroid that briefly made headlines last year due to a small but non-zero chance that it may hit the Earth, may soon have increased odds of striking our Moon. The rest of this article is behind a paywall. Please sign in or subscribe to access the full content.

Asteroid 2024 YR4 was first discovered on December 27, 2024, by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) telescope in Chile. Initial observations showed around a 1 percent chance that it could collide with Earth on December 22, 2032, while follow-up observations of the asteroid briefly showed a slightly higher chance of the asteroid making an impact. At 3.1 percent, it briefly became considered the most dangerous space object since tracking began.

But pinning down the path of an obj

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