Tourism spending in the United States is expected to drop significantly this year, with a projected decline of $5.7 billion compared to last year. This decrease is largely attributed to a significant reduction in visitors from Canada. According to the U.S. Travel Association, total inbound travel spending is forecasted to fall by 3.2 percent, reaching $173 billion for the year.

The association's latest travel forecast indicates that the number of Canadian visitors is the main factor behind this decline. Last year, approximately 20.2 million Canadians traveled to the U.S., a slight decrease from 20.5 million in the previous year. However, this figure marked an increase compared to the three years prior, when the pandemic severely restricted travel. This year, the association predicts only 15.7 million Canadian visitors, a drop of 4.5 million. The long-term outlook suggests it may take until 2029 for Canadian visits to exceed 20 million again.

In contrast, arrivals from Mexico are expected to rise to 17.9 million this year, up from 17 million last year. However, overseas visits are projected to decline slightly, from 35.2 million last year to 34.2 million this year. This indicates that the overall loss in visitor numbers is primarily due to fewer Canadians traveling to the U.S.

Despite the downturn, the U.S. Travel Association remains optimistic about future travel spending. It forecasts modest increases in total travel spending—covering business, leisure, and domestic travel—over the next five years. However, it will take time for these figures to return to pre-pandemic levels. The report notes, "International inbound travel is projected to decrease in 2025 for the first time since 2020, but to resume growth in 2026, driven by U.S.-hosted events such as the FIFA World Cup and America 250 celebrations."

The association also expressed caution regarding future travel trends. It stated, "Despite lowered growth expectations, risks remain." It highlighted significant consumer uncertainty and warned that if economic conditions worsen, travel could decline further. Additionally, the report mentioned potential challenges for international visitors, including possible increases in visa fees, longer wait times for visa applications, and negative perceptions of the U.S. in key markets.

During a recent visit by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, a reporter asked U.S. President Donald Trump about concerns from Canadians regarding travel to the U.S. Trump did not directly address the question but remarked, "It’s something that will get worked out. There’s still great love between the two countries."

In response to the decline in Canadian visitors, some U.S. tourist destinations are actively trying to attract them back. Kalispell, Montana, has introduced a Canadian Welcome Pass, offering discounts on accommodations, attractions, and shopping for Canadian visitors. The city’s website states, "We miss you, Canada. If there’s one thing we know about Montana and Canada, it’s that we’ve always been friends."

Other initiatives include Burlington, Vermont, temporarily renaming a central avenue to Canada Street and California launching a "California Loves Canada" campaign featuring advertisements aimed at Canadian tourists.

Despite these efforts, data from Statistics Canada indicates that visits by Canadians to the U.S. fell by 23 percent in the first seven months of 2025 compared to the same period last year. Polls also show that many Canadians remain hesitant to cross the border.