Of the many unprecedented features of the last New York City mayoral election, one stands out as particularly surreal: A lot of people were betting real money on the result. Polymarket , the prediction platform that isn’t yet legal in the U.S., claims to have processed more than $420 million in trading volume on the “candidate that wins” market alone (although that figure should be taken with a grain of salt). Kalshi, which is already legal here, says it processed more than $120 million.

Prediction markets, which broke through during the 2024 presidential election, had become unavoidable in just one year: LinkNYC screens flashed betting odds to sidewalk passersby between weather reports; news articles listed Kalshi and Polymarket odds alongside polling numbers; and coping Cuom

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