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Evacuation warnings were set to go into effect across Los Angeles County on Thursday evening as an atmospheric river approached Southern California, bringing with it the potential to put an early end to fire season while also bringing fresh risks of flooding and mudslides.

Under the storm scenario deemed most likely by forecasters, downtown L.A. would see 2.62 inches of rain Thursday through Sunday, according to the National Weather Service. However, the forecast remains unsettled and varies widely.

There’s a roughly one-in-four chance of lower-but-still-notable precipitation, in the neighborhood of 1.39 inches, but an equal chance of a far-more-potent soaking of 4.81 inches over t

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