Can the Patriots get the No. 1 seed? Remaining schedule, AFC East odds, playoff picture

Nov 9, 2025; Tampa, Florida, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) hands the ball off to running back Treveyon Henderson (32) during the fourth quarter against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium.

Many expected the New England Patriots to improve in 2025 under a new coaching staff led by Mike Vrabel but few expected a turnaround quite like this.

Quarterback Drake Maye and company are a top-10 offense by yards and points through the first 10 weeks of the season. Under offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, Maye has been one of the top passers in the league by advanced statistics in his second NFL season. The former No. 3 overall pick leads the NFL in expected points added (EPA) per pass at 73.1 despite facing pressure at the fifth-highest rate among starting quarterbacks league-wide.

On defense, the Patriots boast the league's top run defense and rank sixth in points allowed through 10 weeks. Cornerback Christian Gonzalez is having a career year in coverage by most metrics and the unit as a whole has yet to allow opponents to score 30 or more points in a game.

New England's win in Week 10 over the Buccaneers brought them to 8-2 on the season and equaled the franchise's win total from the last two seasons combined.

This week, they're in prime time for just the second time this season and host the New York Jets. New York has won its last two games but is facing New England for the first time this season.

New England has won at least eight of its first 10 games of the season for the first time since 2019 - Tom Brady's final year with the franchise. They were the AFC's No. 3 seed in the playoffs that season but could do better in 2025.

With a jumbled top of the conference, the Patriots have a shot at earning the AFC's top seed. Here's a look at their odds to win the AFC East, get the top playoff seed and what their remaining schedule looks like.

New England Patriots odds

Odds from BetMGM as of Wednesday, Nov. 12.

Odds for the Patriots to win the AFC East: -235 (best)

BetMGM puts the Patriots in the driver's seat for the AFC East title in 2025. It'd be their first since that 2019 season and would break the Buffalo Bills' hold on the division for the last five seasons. Buffalo is the only realistic challenger for them in the division and sits at +190 entering Week 11 at home against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Odds for the Patriots to earn the No. 1 seed: +210 (best)

New England sits atop the rest of the conference as the favorite to get the No. 1 seed in the AFC ahead of Indianapolis (+220). There's a gap in odds from those two down to the Bills (+500), Broncos (+500) and Chiefs (+850).

Indianapolis may have a slight edge, considering the next-closest challenger in their division, the Jaguars, are at +8000 to get the No. 1 seed. But New England can still make it happen.

Can the Patriots get the No. 1 seed?

Of the division leaders in the AFC entering Week 11, the Patriots appear to have the easiest route to the No. 1 seed. Per Tankathon's remaining schedule strength metric, New England has the easiest remaining slate in the NFL - not just in their division.

New England has one game against a team with a winning record entering Week 11 remaining on the schedule: Week 15 against the Buffalo Bills at home. The Patriots already beat Buffalo on the road in Week 5 and have a leg up on them for the division.

That game and a road matchup against the resurgent Baltimore Ravens in Week 16 are their toughest remaining games in the regular season. If they drop both of those and win out the rest of the way, they'd finish the regular season at 13-4.

The four years since the regular season expanded to 18 weeks in 2021 have seen an even distribution of the eight No. 1 seeds wins-wise. Exactly two teams have finished with 12, 13, 14 and 15 wins:

12 wins: 2021 AFC No. 1 seed Tennessee, 2023 NFC No. 1 seed San Francisco
13 wins: 2021 NFC No. 1 seed Green Bay, 2023 AFC No. 1 seed Baltimore
14 wins: 2022's No. 1 seeds Kansas City (AFC) and Philadelphia (NFC)
15 wins: 2024's No. 1 seeds Kansas City (AFC) and Detroit (NFC)

If the Patriots can get to 13 wins, they'd be right there for the top seed in the conference.

AFC playoff picture entering Week 11