NFL straight-up picks Week 11: An incredible week of baffling matchups

NFL straight-up picks, Week 11

Oct 30, 2025; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Baltimore Ravens safety Kyle Hamilton (14) and safety Malaki Starks (24) react after a play during the second quarter against the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

Detroit Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs (0) runs for a touchdown against Washington Commanders during the second half at Northwest Stadium in Landover, Md. on Sunday, November 9, 2025.

Week 11 looks like the toughest week to predict in the 2025 NFL regular season. That's tough, because it's not like our group of experts got Week 10 right, either.

A modest slate of upsets last week gave way to a lineup of coin flip games. By my count, there are nine games in a 15-matchup schedule that required a deep dive instead of a gut pick -- and I still don't feel great about most of them. Bettors agree; 60 percent of Week 11's showdowns have a spread of 3.5 points or lower.

Are you supposed to trust the Pittsburgh Steelers and their patchwork secondary against the Cincinnati Bengals, one week after one of the worst games of Aaron Rodgers' career? Will the Buffalo Bills bounce back against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers when both sides need a stabilizing win? Which unstoppable force will crumble in the battle for NFC West supremacy: the Los Angeles Rams or Seattle Seahawks?

There are six more games like that this week! It's gonna be a bloodbath in our picks, which have been prone to occasional flights of doofus-brained decisions to begin with. Well, let's take a closer look at an absolutely brutal week of football for bettors and a potentially brilliant one to watch.

I ended 2023 as Pickwatch’s top expert in a field of hundreds. My 2024 wasn't as fruitful — Andrew Joseph and his 71 percent hit rate knocked me down a peg in the FTW standings.

Joining me for 2025 is a seven-person panel ranging from FTW editors (Charles Curtis, Mary Clarke) to betting analysts (Prince Grimes, Jordan Tomiyama) to NFL writers (Robert Zeglinski, Cory Woodroof and Joseph). Here are our Week 11 picks.

And:

Since our editing software occasionally struggles to make these picks super clear, here they are in an easier to read (but impossible to cut and paste) jpg:

Survivor pick of the week: Baltimore Ravens (-7) over the Cleveland Browns

Well, our survivor run officially ended last week because the Carolina Panthers have yet to find a form of optimism they cannot ruin. While this would be a great place to pick the New England Patriots -- the week's only double-digit favorites -- we burned them in Week 7. Fortunately, the Ravens' slow start and tough schedule means they're still here... and playing a team that found a way to lose to Justin Fields last week!

Cleveland has cracked 300 total yards once since Week 2, and that was a London game so it exists in some kind of pocket dimension that doesn't inform the Browns' actual capabilities. The Ravens defense still has questions left to be answered -- Alohi Gilman's place in the secondary has freed Kyle Hamilton up to do more KYLE HAMILTON things near the line of scrimmage, but that can't fix everything. Cleveland probably isn't going to effectively interrogate that unit.

• Last week: 1-0
• 2025 to date: 8-0 (1.000)

Hardest favorite to back: Los Angeles Rams (-3) over the Seattle Seahawks

There are entirely too many candidates this week. Instead, let's just talk about the best and biggest game of Week 11.

Why I like this pick:

Matthew Stafford has 13 touchdown passes in his last three games without a turnover. He has 20 touchdown passes his last six games without an interception. The Rams passing offense since Week 4 is averaging 0.36 expected points added (EPA) per dropback. That means every nine passing plays Sean McVay dials up adds an extra field goal's worth of additional value for Los Angeles.

He's buttressed by a defense that ranks second only to the Houston Texans in that span (better than the Denver Broncos!). The schedule has played a role there -- LA gave up 20 combined points in a three-game stretch but that came against the Cooper Rush/Tyler Huntley-led Baltimore Ravens, Jacksonville Jaguars and New Orleans Saints. Still, there's still so much to like here.

Seattle has a suspect line and has to protect Sam Darnold against a pass rush that's generated a top-12 pressure rate despite a bottom-six blitz rate. The personnel will be there to bracket Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The Rams are going to force someone else to step up and beat them Sunday afternoon, and that may not be enough to keep pace with LA.

Why I don't like this pick:

The Rams' passing offense ranks second in dropback EPA the last seven weeks. Clocking in at No. 1 with 0.369 EPA/pass? Sam Darnold and the Seahawks.

Los Angeles' run game has been inefficient in recent weeks, though we haven't noticed because Stafford is sparkling so brightly. The Rams' -0.082 EPA per rush ranks 23rd in the league since Week 4 and their 4.1 yards per carry rank 21st. That unit may have to carry the offense if Seattle's top 10 passing defense can stifle Stafford. Except, whoops, the Seahawks have the league's third-stingiest run defense, too.

This is an incredibly tight matchup and I eventually defaulted to home field advantage. If this were being played in Washington, the line and my pick would have both flipped. And we'll get a chance to see that in Week 16, potentially with a division crown on the line. Hopefully, this is just the first awesome film in a blockbuster trilogy.

• Last week: 0-1
• 2025 to date: 4-6 (.400)

Upset pick of the week: Detroit Lions (+3) over the Philadelphia Eagles

I flipped back and forth on this pick about 13 times before publishing. The Eagles have the worst vibes of any NFC-leading team in history. The Lions are trending upward and Jared Goff is doing MVP-type stuff. That's enough to get me to shrug and don some Honolulu Blue.

Why I like this pick:

Dan Campbell claimed offensive playcalling duties from first-year coordinator John Morton and promptly guided Detroit to 546 yards of total offense in a 44-22 destruction of the Washington Commanders. The Eagles just shut down Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers, but it's difficult to tell just how meaningful that is. They also gave up 38 points to the New York Giants and 350-plus total yards to Bo Nix and Carson Wentz-led offenses.

Philly's run offense has gone from the league's most efficient unit to a place outside the top 10, which means the clock-grinding ground game won't be able to keep the ball away from Goff and company with a late lead. Both teams are prone to random in-season glitches. The Eagles' brain farts seem to be a little worse than the Lions.

Why I don't like this pick:

The Eagles keep winning despite their modest dysfunction. A.J. Brown has complained enough to get an 11-target day and will probably turn that into at least a handful of back-breaking first downs. Detroit got beat by JJ McCarthy and made the wildly uneven first-year QB look impressively competent in the process -- something he was unable to do against the Falcons, Vikings or, for one half, Bears.

Philadelphia turned consternation about an illogical offense into a 38-point explosion against the Giants three weeks ago. Obviously this is a different class of opponents, but no one turns perceived slights into dynamic action quite like Philly.

• Last week: 1-0
• 2025 to date: 6-3 (.667)

This article originally appeared on For The Win: NFL straight-up picks Week 11: An incredible week of baffling matchups

Reporting by Christian D'Andrea, For The Win / For The Win

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